From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?     In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced.   Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc.   The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis ... it's not linear. From  the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this.   The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly.     Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction =      Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?   Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not?

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From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?

 

 

In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced.

 

Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc.

 

The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis ... it's not linear. From  the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this.

 

The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly.

 

 

Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992?

Prediction =   

 

Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?

 

Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? 

 

The image is a scatter plot depicting the historical growth of transistor counts in microprocessors from the early 1970s to 2018, illustrating Moore's Law. The y-axis represents the transistor count, ranging from 1,000 to over 1 billion, on a logarithmic scale. The x-axis represents the years from 1970 to 2018.

**Highlights from the Graph:**

- **1971:** Intel 4004, the first microprocessor, with a transistor count of 2,300.
- **1980s:** Significant growth with processors like Intel 8086 and Motorola 68000, moving from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of transistors.
- **Early 1990s:** Introduction of processors like the Intel 80486 and ARM series, surpassing 1 million transistors.
- **2000:** Pentium processors, such as Pentium 4 and AMD K6, reach several million transistors.
- **2010s:** Quad-core and multi-core processors with transistor counts exceeding 1 billion, including Intel Core i7 and Qualcomm Snapdragon models.

The plot demonstrates a consistent exponential growth in the number of transistors, supporting Moore's Law, which predicts a doubling of transistors approximately every two years.
Transcribed Image Text:The image is a scatter plot depicting the historical growth of transistor counts in microprocessors from the early 1970s to 2018, illustrating Moore's Law. The y-axis represents the transistor count, ranging from 1,000 to over 1 billion, on a logarithmic scale. The x-axis represents the years from 1970 to 2018. **Highlights from the Graph:** - **1971:** Intel 4004, the first microprocessor, with a transistor count of 2,300. - **1980s:** Significant growth with processors like Intel 8086 and Motorola 68000, moving from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of transistors. - **Early 1990s:** Introduction of processors like the Intel 80486 and ARM series, surpassing 1 million transistors. - **2000:** Pentium processors, such as Pentium 4 and AMD K6, reach several million transistors. - **2010s:** Quad-core and multi-core processors with transistor counts exceeding 1 billion, including Intel Core i7 and Qualcomm Snapdragon models. The plot demonstrates a consistent exponential growth in the number of transistors, supporting Moore's Law, which predicts a doubling of transistors approximately every two years.
This graph illustrates the progression of transistor count in microprocessors from 1970 to 2010, showcasing Moore's Law in practice, which posits that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years, improving performance.

**Horizontal Axis: Years (1970-2010)**
- The timeline begins at 1970 and progresses through 2010, marking significant developments in microprocessor technology over four decades.

**Vertical Axis: Transistor Count**
- The vertical axis represents the transistor count, ranging from 1,000 (10^3) to over 1 billion (10^9).

**Data Points: Microprocessors**
- Each blue diamond represents a specific microprocessor and its transistor count at the time of release.

**Trends and Key Observations:**
1. **1970s**: 
   - Intel 4004 (1971) marks the earliest data point with roughly 2,300 transistors.
   - Progression through the decade includes Intel 8008, Intel 8080, and more, reaching around 10,000 transistors by the end of the decade.

2. **1980s**: 
   - Significant growth occurs; processors like the Intel 80286 and Motorola 68020 appear as transistor counts rise, crossing into the hundreds of thousands.

3. **1990s**: 
   - Exponential growth is evident, with chips like the Intel Pentium and AMD K5 reaching millions of transistors.

4. **2000s**: 
   - Continued acceleration sees the introduction of multi-core processors, such as the Intel Core 2 Duo and AMD Athlon, boasting hundreds of millions to over a billion transistors.

**Significant Outliers:**
- Notable entries, such as Dual-core Itanium 2 and the six-core Xeon 7400, demonstrate the increasing complexity and capabilities of microprocessors towards the 2010 mark.

Overall, the graph visually represents the dramatic increase in transistor counts over time, emphasizing the rapid technological advancements in computing power and capability.
Transcribed Image Text:This graph illustrates the progression of transistor count in microprocessors from 1970 to 2010, showcasing Moore's Law in practice, which posits that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years, improving performance. **Horizontal Axis: Years (1970-2010)** - The timeline begins at 1970 and progresses through 2010, marking significant developments in microprocessor technology over four decades. **Vertical Axis: Transistor Count** - The vertical axis represents the transistor count, ranging from 1,000 (10^3) to over 1 billion (10^9). **Data Points: Microprocessors** - Each blue diamond represents a specific microprocessor and its transistor count at the time of release. **Trends and Key Observations:** 1. **1970s**: - Intel 4004 (1971) marks the earliest data point with roughly 2,300 transistors. - Progression through the decade includes Intel 8008, Intel 8080, and more, reaching around 10,000 transistors by the end of the decade. 2. **1980s**: - Significant growth occurs; processors like the Intel 80286 and Motorola 68020 appear as transistor counts rise, crossing into the hundreds of thousands. 3. **1990s**: - Exponential growth is evident, with chips like the Intel Pentium and AMD K5 reaching millions of transistors. 4. **2000s**: - Continued acceleration sees the introduction of multi-core processors, such as the Intel Core 2 Duo and AMD Athlon, boasting hundreds of millions to over a billion transistors. **Significant Outliers:** - Notable entries, such as Dual-core Itanium 2 and the six-core Xeon 7400, demonstrate the increasing complexity and capabilities of microprocessors towards the 2010 mark. Overall, the graph visually represents the dramatic increase in transistor counts over time, emphasizing the rapid technological advancements in computing power and capability.
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