(From Hans Reichenbach's The Theory of Probability, University of California Press, 1949.) Mr. Smith's gardener is not dependable; the probability that he will forget to water the rosebush during Smith's absence is 2/3. The rosebush is in questionable condition anyhow; if watered, the probability of its withering is 1/2, but if it is not watered, the probability of its withering is 3/4. Upon returning, Smith finds that the rosebush has withered. What is the probability that the gardener did not water the rosebush?

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(From Hans Reichenbach's The Theory of Probability, University of California Press, 1949.) Mr. Smith's gardener is not
dependable; the probability that he will forget to water the rosebush during Smith's absence is 2/3. The rosebush is in
questionable condition anyhow; if watered, the probability of its withering is 1/2, but if it is not watered, the probability of
its withering is 3/4. Upon returning, Smith finds that the rosebush has withered. What is the probability that the gardener
did not water the rosebush?
Transcribed Image Text:(From Hans Reichenbach's The Theory of Probability, University of California Press, 1949.) Mr. Smith's gardener is not dependable; the probability that he will forget to water the rosebush during Smith's absence is 2/3. The rosebush is in questionable condition anyhow; if watered, the probability of its withering is 1/2, but if it is not watered, the probability of its withering is 3/4. Upon returning, Smith finds that the rosebush has withered. What is the probability that the gardener did not water the rosebush?
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