15 Explain the semi average method of trend estimation in a time series and give its merits and demerits.
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- A) Compute the last-squares regression line for predicting US emission from NON US - emissions. b) If the non-US emission differ by 0.2 from one year to the next by how much would you predict the US- emission to differ?5. Management of a home appliance store wants tounderstand the growth pattern of the monthly sales of a new technology device over the past two years.The managers have recorded the relevant data inthe file P13_05.xlsx. Have the sales of this devicebeen growing linearly over the past 24 months? Byexamining the results of a linear trend line, explainwhy or why not.150 30 0 www ii) 14 i) 21 ii) 28 days 35 42 (a) The Figure above shows simulated data on the number of people (in thousands) who use public transport every day in Melbourne. i) 49 56 Does this time series exhibit a time trend? If there is a time trend, explain what could explain this trend. (b) Consider the following estimated model of industrial production (Y), which uses quarterly data from 2001q1 to 2022q4 and includes a constant, a time trend (t) and 3 seasonal dummy variables (Q1, Q2, and Q3) in the equation. Does this time series exhibit seasonality? What statistical test could you perform to test whether there is seasonality? If there is seasonality, explain what could explain this seasonal pattern. log(Y) = 6.01 +0.05t -0.0201 -0.03Q2 -0.0103 Interpret the estimated coefficients for the time trend and three seasonal dummies. Based on the estimated equation above, what would be the forecast for industrial production for the first quarter of 2024?
- The consumption function captures one of the key relationships in economics. It expresses consumption as a function of disposal income, where disposable income is income after taxes. The attached file "Regression-Dataset1" shows data of average US annual consumption (in $) and disposable income (in $) for the years 2000 to 2016. a)what is the Pearson correlation value between income and consumption? Select one: Ⓒa. 0.978 b. 0.109 c. None of the above d. 0.791The number of new contributors to a public radio station's annual fund drive over the last ten years is 170, 168, 165, 172, 178, 180, 175, 185, 180, 188 Develop a trend equation (regression equation) for this information and use it to predict period 11's number of new contributors. What is the R square value? What does R square signify?Explain how to determine the variance inflation factor (VIF) for a predictor variable x1 in a regression equation that also contains the predictor variables x2, x3, and x4.
- Vehicles arrive at a car detailing service at a rate of 10 per minute according to a Poissondistribution. For simplicity, assume that there is only one lane and one worker who can serve atan average rate of 12 vehicles per minute. Service times are exponentially distributed. Part A: What is the average length of the queue? Part B: What is the average time a vehicle must spend to get through the system? Part C: What is the utilization rate of the worker? Part D: What is the probability that when you arrive at the shop, there will be three ormore vehicles ahead of you?Assuming equal effort (# of nets in the water has not changed and the fishing season dates have stayed the same) identify trends in the squid population you see in the data. Based on your textbook reading this week, speculate what processes or dynamics could produce the population trends seen in your data.An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller blades: a linear trend equation and the naive approach. The linear trend equation is F+ = 122 +1.9t, and it was developed using data from periods 1 through 10. Based on data for periods 11 through 20 as shown in the table, which of these two methods has the greater accuracy if MAD and MSE are used? (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.) t 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Units Sold 143 149 152 145 155 152 154 159 159 162 Click here for the Excel Data File MAD (Naive) MAD (Linear) MSE (Naive) MSE (Linear))
- 1. Which type of graphs best describe the nominal-level data?I BoxplotII Bar chartIII Times series graphIV Pareto chart(a) II only(b) III and IV(c) II and IV(d) I, II, and IIIDescribe three approaches to modeling seasonality in a regression forecast.The forecast for year 6 using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.350.35 and 0.650.65 (the weight of 0.650.65 is for the most recent period) is what?