Explain how a court trial is like hypothesis testing.   Write the hypotheses, explain a Type 1 and Type 2 error, and explain why a verdict is “not guilty” instead of innocent. (a) Write the hypotheses Ho and Ha in words. Ho: The defendant is guilty Ho: The probability defendant is innocent is low Ho: The probability defendant is innocent is high Ho: The defendant is innocent

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Explain how a court trial is like hypothesis testing.   Write the hypotheses, explain a Type 1 and Type 2 error, and explain why a verdict is “not guilty” instead of innocent.




(a) Write the hypotheses Ho and Ha in words.

  • Ho: The defendant is guilty
  • Ho: The probability defendant is innocent is low
  • Ho: The probability defendant is innocent is high
  • Ho: The defendant is innocent

 

  • Ha: The defendant is innocent
  • Ha: The probability defendant is innocent is low
  • Ha: The defendant is guilty
  • Ha: The probability defendant is innocent is high




(b) What is a Type 1 Error in a court trial?

  • You fail to reject Ho, but you should have. You send an innocent person to prison.
  • You reject Ho, but you should not have. You let a guilty person go free.
  • You fail to reject Ho, but you should have. You let a guilty person go free.
  • You reject Ho, but you should not have. You send an innocent person to prison.




(c) What is a Type 2 Error in a court trial?

  • You reject Ho, but you should not have. You let a guilty person go free.
  • You fail to reject Ho, but you should have. You send an innocent person to prison.
  • You reject Ho, but you should not have. You send an innocent person to prison.
  • You fail to reject Ho, but you should have. You let a guilty person go free.




(d) A jury convicts if "beyond a reasonable doubt" they believe the defendant is guilty. This is analogous to making αα smaller or larger?

  • It is analogous to making αα larger because a large αα means there is a small probability of a Type 2 error.
  • It is analogous to making αα smaller because a small αα means there is a small probability of a Type 2 error.
  • It is analogous to making αα smaller because a small αα means there is a small probability of a Type 1 error.
  • It is analogous to making αα larger because a large αα means there is a small probability of a Type 1 error.




(e) Why does the jury say the defendant is "not guilty"?

  • The jury accepts the defendant's innocence as truth.
  • The jury is not confident in the person's innocence. They are simply not convinced of the alternative hypothesis that the person is guilty
  • The significance level in the hypothesis test was not low enough.
  • The jury is not confident in the person's innocence. They are simply not convinced of the null hypothesis that the person is guilty

 

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