Explain comprehensively how each demographic transition model stages shift in terms of the birth and death rates. Stage 1: High Population Growth Potential Stage 2: Population Explosion Stage 3: Population Growth Starts to Level Off Stage 4: Stationary Population

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Explain comprehensively how each demographic transition model stages shift in terms of the birth and death rates.

Stage 1: High Population Growth Potential

Stage 2: Population Explosion

Stage 3: Population Growth Starts to Level Off

Stage 4: Stationary Population

Stage 5: Further Changes in Birth Rates

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Demographic Transition Model Stages
The demographic transition model consists of four key stages. There is also a fifth stage that is a
bit less established; we will explain why that is the case. Finally, the sixth stage is a much newer
development in this field and demonstrates the degree to which the demographic transition
model remains evolving and in flux.
Stage 1: High Population Growth Potential
This is generally a pre-industrial society in which both birth and death rates are quite high. Birth
rates and death rates are effectively in balance. The lack of food availability as well as adequate
medical care or effective sanitation and hygiene means the population does not grow very much
due to disease and starvation.
The majority of people are concentrated in rural regions, primarily focusing on agriculture. This
agricultural focus means that having more children is an economic benefit as well as a status
symbol, further contributing to high birth rates and efforts to have larger families. The poor
experience the highest mortality rates of any demographic, but life expectancies are short overall.
Stage 2: Population Explosion
This is the point at which the country begins to experience social and economic development.
With more productive agriculture (and thus more food supply), better medical care, and more
effective sanitation and hygiene, death rates fall quickly and lifespans are longer. The birth rate,
however, does not fall at the same time (it does not increase, but rather remains high). Birth rates
far outpace death rates with the result that the population grows rapidly.
The graph below provides a visual to explain this stage-population increases as the birth rate
stays the same and the death rate falls significantly:
Stage 3: Population Growth Starts to Level Off
At this stage, birth rates decline. This can be attributed to a wide array of social factors,
including:
Contraception access
• Higher wages
Fewer families participating in agriculture (meaning less need for large families to work
on farms)
Improvement in education and social status of women
The result of this decline in birth rates, as the death rate continues to decline with further
improvements in health and sanitation, is that population growth starts to decline as compared to
the second stage. As an example, Mexico began to arrive at stage three at the beginning of the
21st century. Additionally, China used its One-Child Policy to attempt to move toward the third
and fourth stages more quickly than the country might otherwise have done.
Stage 4: Stationary Population
Both birth and death rates are now low at this stage. As a result, the population may remain the
same or even decrease as birth rates come to be lower than "replacement level"-that is, families
are having an average of fewer than two children each. At this time, we would expect that the
generation born during the second stage of demographic transition is aging. Meanwhile, the
potentially shrinking working population must support these elderly members of society. Japan,
for instance, is currently dealing with this socio-economic challenge; some consider Japan to be
at the fifth stage of the demographic transition model (described below).
Stage 5: Further Changes in Birth Rates
This stage is a bit more uncertain. At this stage, some demographers say that fertility rates will
experience shifts to either above or below replacement levels. While some experts argue that
fertility levels will increase, others state the opposite. This depends on the society, too: while
populations in China and Australia are expected to fall due to lower birth rates, those in the U.S.,
India, and Mexico are expected to increase. Additional stages have also been proposed-this is a
contested area and theorists have quite a bit more work to do to come to some kind of consensus
within the field of demography.
Explain comprehensively how each demographic transition model stages shift in terms of the
birth and death rates.
Transcribed Image Text:Demographic Transition Model Stages The demographic transition model consists of four key stages. There is also a fifth stage that is a bit less established; we will explain why that is the case. Finally, the sixth stage is a much newer development in this field and demonstrates the degree to which the demographic transition model remains evolving and in flux. Stage 1: High Population Growth Potential This is generally a pre-industrial society in which both birth and death rates are quite high. Birth rates and death rates are effectively in balance. The lack of food availability as well as adequate medical care or effective sanitation and hygiene means the population does not grow very much due to disease and starvation. The majority of people are concentrated in rural regions, primarily focusing on agriculture. This agricultural focus means that having more children is an economic benefit as well as a status symbol, further contributing to high birth rates and efforts to have larger families. The poor experience the highest mortality rates of any demographic, but life expectancies are short overall. Stage 2: Population Explosion This is the point at which the country begins to experience social and economic development. With more productive agriculture (and thus more food supply), better medical care, and more effective sanitation and hygiene, death rates fall quickly and lifespans are longer. The birth rate, however, does not fall at the same time (it does not increase, but rather remains high). Birth rates far outpace death rates with the result that the population grows rapidly. The graph below provides a visual to explain this stage-population increases as the birth rate stays the same and the death rate falls significantly: Stage 3: Population Growth Starts to Level Off At this stage, birth rates decline. This can be attributed to a wide array of social factors, including: Contraception access • Higher wages Fewer families participating in agriculture (meaning less need for large families to work on farms) Improvement in education and social status of women The result of this decline in birth rates, as the death rate continues to decline with further improvements in health and sanitation, is that population growth starts to decline as compared to the second stage. As an example, Mexico began to arrive at stage three at the beginning of the 21st century. Additionally, China used its One-Child Policy to attempt to move toward the third and fourth stages more quickly than the country might otherwise have done. Stage 4: Stationary Population Both birth and death rates are now low at this stage. As a result, the population may remain the same or even decrease as birth rates come to be lower than "replacement level"-that is, families are having an average of fewer than two children each. At this time, we would expect that the generation born during the second stage of demographic transition is aging. Meanwhile, the potentially shrinking working population must support these elderly members of society. Japan, for instance, is currently dealing with this socio-economic challenge; some consider Japan to be at the fifth stage of the demographic transition model (described below). Stage 5: Further Changes in Birth Rates This stage is a bit more uncertain. At this stage, some demographers say that fertility rates will experience shifts to either above or below replacement levels. While some experts argue that fertility levels will increase, others state the opposite. This depends on the society, too: while populations in China and Australia are expected to fall due to lower birth rates, those in the U.S., India, and Mexico are expected to increase. Additional stages have also been proposed-this is a contested area and theorists have quite a bit more work to do to come to some kind of consensus within the field of demography. Explain comprehensively how each demographic transition model stages shift in terms of the birth and death rates.
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