Exercise 5 Suppose there are n students in this class. We are interested in the probability of the event A that at least two students have the same birthday. For simplicity, we assume that no student was born on February 29 and that all students were born independently of each other (no twins!). We also assume that each day in the year is equally probable for a birthday. (a) The instructor asks all students for their birthdays. How many possible outcomes are there? (b) Describe in words what A' means. (c) Compute P(A') in dependence of n.

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Parts A, B and C
Exercise 5 Suppose there are n students in this class. We are interested in the probability of
the event A that at least two students have the same birthday. For simplicity, we assume that no
student was born on February 29 and that all students were born independently of each other (no
twins!). We also assume that each day in the year is equally probable for a birthday.
(a) The instructor asks all students for their birthdays. How many possible outcomes are there?
(b) Describe in words what A' means.
(c) Compute P(A') in dependence of n.
(d) Compute P(A) in dependence of n.
If you have a good calculator, you can verify that P(A) 2 50% already at n = 23 and that
P(A) > 99% already at n = 57.
(e) Birth statistics show that not each day in the year is equally likely as a birthday, see the
following chart. Give a plausible explanation for the Top 10 and the Bottom 10.
Day
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Birthday Rank
1
2
Most
Common
Least
Common
3
4
Top 10
6.
Day Sep
10
15
16
8
9
18
21
22
10
11
12
Bottom 10
13
14
Day
1
15
16
17
4
18
24
19
20
28
21
Bottom 10 excl. 2/29
22
Data represents the #
of babies born in the
United States between
1973 and 1999
23
24
25
26
Source:
Amitabh Chandra
Harvard University ..
27
28
29
Designed by
VizWiz
30
31
Data Vialation Done Right
Transcribed Image Text:Exercise 5 Suppose there are n students in this class. We are interested in the probability of the event A that at least two students have the same birthday. For simplicity, we assume that no student was born on February 29 and that all students were born independently of each other (no twins!). We also assume that each day in the year is equally probable for a birthday. (a) The instructor asks all students for their birthdays. How many possible outcomes are there? (b) Describe in words what A' means. (c) Compute P(A') in dependence of n. (d) Compute P(A) in dependence of n. If you have a good calculator, you can verify that P(A) 2 50% already at n = 23 and that P(A) > 99% already at n = 57. (e) Birth statistics show that not each day in the year is equally likely as a birthday, see the following chart. Give a plausible explanation for the Top 10 and the Bottom 10. Day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Birthday Rank 1 2 Most Common Least Common 3 4 Top 10 6. Day Sep 10 15 16 8 9 18 21 22 10 11 12 Bottom 10 13 14 Day 1 15 16 17 4 18 24 19 20 28 21 Bottom 10 excl. 2/29 22 Data represents the # of babies born in the United States between 1973 and 1999 23 24 25 26 Source: Amitabh Chandra Harvard University .. 27 28 29 Designed by VizWiz 30 31 Data Vialation Done Right
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