Example Suppose A, B, C fail on demand independently with probability 0.1 each T OR AND AND University of Strathclyde Business School T= ^ た = (A.B) What is the probability of the top A B A event T? 01 0.1 0-1 Probability of Top Event Exact P(T) = P(A.B) + P(A.C) − P((A.B).(A.C)) = = P(A.B) + P(A.C) – P(A.B.C) = 0.019 Rare event approximation P(T) = P(A.B) + P(A.C) = P(A).P(B)+P(A).P(C) = 0.02 University of Strathclyde Business School A

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when we calculate probabitity of top event, doest it meant by rare event approximation that we neglect the conjection? since we consider it in the exact 

Example
Suppose A, B, C fail
on demand
independently with
probability 0.1 each
T
OR
AND
AND
University of
Strathclyde
Business
School
T= ^
た
= (A.B)
What is the
probability of the top
A
B
A
event T?
01
0.1
0-1
Probability of Top Event
Exact
P(T) = P(A.B) + P(A.C) − P((A.B).(A.C))
=
= P(A.B) + P(A.C) – P(A.B.C)
= 0.019
Rare event approximation
P(T) = P(A.B) + P(A.C)
= P(A).P(B)+P(A).P(C) = 0.02
University of
Strathclyde
Business
School
A
Transcribed Image Text:Example Suppose A, B, C fail on demand independently with probability 0.1 each T OR AND AND University of Strathclyde Business School T= ^ た = (A.B) What is the probability of the top A B A event T? 01 0.1 0-1 Probability of Top Event Exact P(T) = P(A.B) + P(A.C) − P((A.B).(A.C)) = = P(A.B) + P(A.C) – P(A.B.C) = 0.019 Rare event approximation P(T) = P(A.B) + P(A.C) = P(A).P(B)+P(A).P(C) = 0.02 University of Strathclyde Business School A
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