EXAMPLE 3.7d A laboratory blood test is 99 percent effective in detecting a certain disease when it is, in fact, present. However, the test also yields a "false positive" result for 1 percent of the healthy persons tested. (That is, if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability .01, the test result will imply he or she has the disease.) If .5 percent of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability a person has the disease given that his test result is positive?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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EXAMPLE 3.7d A laboratory blood test is 99 percent effective in detecting a certain disease
when it is, in fact, present. However, the test also yields a "false positive" result for
1 percent of the healthy persons tested. (That is, if a healthy person is tested, then, with
probability .01, the test result will imply he or she has the disease.) If .5 percent of the
population actually has the disease, what is the probability a person has the disease given
that his test result is positive?
Transcribed Image Text:EXAMPLE 3.7d A laboratory blood test is 99 percent effective in detecting a certain disease when it is, in fact, present. However, the test also yields a "false positive" result for 1 percent of the healthy persons tested. (That is, if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability .01, the test result will imply he or she has the disease.) If .5 percent of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability a person has the disease given that his test result is positive?
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