Example 21.6 The following payoff table gives the most accurate estimates of payoffs for three alterma- tive courses of action and four possible states of nature under conditions of uncertainty. A Payoff Table (Rs lakh) Courses of States of Nature Action S, S2 S3 125 100 70 20 A2 Ag 70 150 90 100 50 120 60 -10 The probabilities are-S,: 0.4, S, : 0.25, S; : 0.2 and S,: 0.15. Two questions arise: 1. What course of action would be recommended in this situation? 2. What is expected value of perfect information?

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Example 21.6 The following payoff table gives the most accurate estimates of payoffs for three alterna-
tive courses of action and four possible states of nature under conditions of uncertainty.
A Payoff Table
(Rs lakh)
Courses of
States of Nature
Action
S,
S2
S3
S4
125
100
70
20
Ag
Az
Ag
70
90
100
50
150
120
60
-10
The probabilities are-S, :0.4, S2 : 0.25, S3:0.2 and S. : 0,15. Two questions arise:
1. What course of action would be recommended in this situation?
2. What is expected value of perfect information?
Transcribed Image Text:Example 21.6 The following payoff table gives the most accurate estimates of payoffs for three alterna- tive courses of action and four possible states of nature under conditions of uncertainty. A Payoff Table (Rs lakh) Courses of States of Nature Action S, S2 S3 S4 125 100 70 20 Ag Az Ag 70 90 100 50 150 120 60 -10 The probabilities are-S, :0.4, S2 : 0.25, S3:0.2 and S. : 0,15. Two questions arise: 1. What course of action would be recommended in this situation? 2. What is expected value of perfect information?
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