Economists John Maynard Keynes and John Hicks argued that, if hedgers tend to hold short positions and speculators tend to hold long positions, the futures price of an asset will be below the expected spot price. This is because speculators require compensation for the risks they are bearing. They will trade only if they can expect to make money on average. Hedgers will lose money on average, but they are likely to be prepared to accept this because the futures contract reduces their risks This is from John Maynard Keynes. My question is i dont understand this statement. Why is the future price of an asset to be below the expected spot price if speculators are the main determinant of the future price, they have a long contract which means they will earn money if the spot price is above the expected spot price
Economists John Maynard Keynes and John Hicks argued that, if hedgers tend to hold
short positions and speculators tend to hold long positions, the futures
will be below the expected spot price. This is because speculators require compensation
for the risks they are bearing. They will trade only if they can expect to make money on
average. Hedgers will lose money on average, but they are likely to be prepared to
accept this because the futures contract reduces their risks
This is from John Maynard Keynes. My question is i dont understand this statement. Why is the future price of an asset to be below the expected spot price if speculators are the main determinant of the future price, they have a long contract which means they will earn money if the spot price is above the expected spot price
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