During a power blackout, one hundred persons are arrested on suspicion of looting. Each is given a polygraph test. From past experience, it is known that the polygraph is 90% reliable when administered to a guilty suspect and 98% reliable when given to someone who is innocent. Suppose that of the one hundred persons taken into custody. Only twelve were actually involved in any wrongdoing. What is the probability that a given suspect is innocent, given that the polygraph says he is guilty?

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