During a power blackout, one hundred persons are arrested on suspicion of looting. Each is given a polygraph test. From past experience, it is known that the polygraph is 90% reliable when administered to a guilty suspect and 98% reliable when given to someone who is innocent. Suppose that of the one hundred persons taken into custody. Only twelve were actually involved in any wrongdoing. What is the probability that a given suspect is innocent, given that the polygraph says he is guilty?
During a power blackout, one hundred persons are arrested on suspicion of looting. Each is given a polygraph test. From past experience, it is known that the polygraph is 90% reliable when administered to a guilty suspect and 98% reliable when given to someone who is innocent. Suppose that of the one hundred persons taken into custody. Only twelve were actually involved in any wrongdoing. What is the probability that a given suspect is innocent, given that the polygraph says he is guilty?
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
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During a power blackout, one hundred persons are arrested on suspicion of looting. Each is given a polygraph test. From past experience, it is known that the polygraph is 90% reliable when administered to a guilty suspect and 98% reliable when given to someone who is innocent. Suppose that of the one hundred persons taken into custody. Only twelve were actually involved in any wrongdoing. What is the probability that a given suspect is innocent, given that the polygraph says he is guilty?
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