) Develop the three-week moving average for this time series. (Round your ansviers to Time Series Week Forecast Value 1 19 13 15 4 10 14.33 2. 3.

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Chapter4: Exponential And Logarithmic Functions
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(b) Develop the three-week moving average for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)
Time Series
Value
Week
Forecast
1
19
2
13
3
15
4
10
14.33
5
18
11.33
14
13.33
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE = 17.58
1x
What is the forecast for week 7?
13
(c) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
19
2
13
18
3
15
4
10
18
6
14
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE =
What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
(d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain.
O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach.
O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach.
O The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach using a = 0.2.
O The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach using a = 0.2.
(e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2.
Transcribed Image Text:(b) Develop the three-week moving average for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Time Series Value Week Forecast 1 19 2 13 3 15 4 10 14.33 5 18 11.33 14 13.33 Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = 17.58 1x What is the forecast for week 7? 13 (c) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 19 2 13 18 3 15 4 10 18 6 14 Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) (d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain. O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach. O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach. O The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach using a = 0.2. O The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach using a = 0.2. (e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2.
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