Derive the probability distribution of the 1-year HPR on a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond with an 8% coupon if it is currently selling at par and the probability distribution of its yield to maturity a year from now is as follows: State of the Economy Boom Normal growth Recession Probability 0.20 0.50 0.30 YTM 11.0% 8.0 7.0 For simplicity, assume the entire 8% coupon is paid at the end of the year rather than every 6 months.

Essentials Of Investments
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Author:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
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Chapter1: Investments: Background And Issues
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Derive the probability distribution of the 1-year HPR on a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond with an
8% coupon if it is currently selling at par and the probability distribution of its yield to maturity
a year from now is as follows:
State of the Economy
Boom
Normal growth
Recession
Probability
0.20
0.50
0.30
YTM
11.0%
8.0
7.0
For simplicity, assume the entire 8% coupon is paid at the end of the year rather than every
6 months.
Transcribed Image Text:Derive the probability distribution of the 1-year HPR on a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond with an 8% coupon if it is currently selling at par and the probability distribution of its yield to maturity a year from now is as follows: State of the Economy Boom Normal growth Recession Probability 0.20 0.50 0.30 YTM 11.0% 8.0 7.0 For simplicity, assume the entire 8% coupon is paid at the end of the year rather than every 6 months.
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