Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of are shown in the following table. Year Demand for fertilze ,000 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 6 10 5 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 11 15 i. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is best? ii. Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer.
Inverse Normal Distribution
The method used for finding the corresponding z-critical value in a normal distribution using the known probability is said to be an inverse normal distribution. The inverse normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution with a family of two parameters.
Mean, Median, Mode
It is a descriptive summary of a data set. It can be defined by using some of the measures. The central tendencies do not provide information regarding individual data from the dataset. However, they give a summary of the data set. The central tendency or measure of central tendency is a central or typical value for a probability distribution.
Z-Scores
A z-score is a unit of measurement used in statistics to describe the position of a raw score in terms of its distance from the mean, measured with reference to standard deviation from the mean. Z-scores are useful in statistics because they allow comparison between two scores that belong to different normal distributions.
Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of are shown in the
following table.
| Year | Demand for fertilze ,000 |
| 1 | 4 |
| 2 | 6 |
| 3 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 |
| 5 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 |
| 10 | 14 |
| 11 | 15 |
i. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate
demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most
recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each
given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is best?
ii. Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer.
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