(d) Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain. The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach. The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach. O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach. (e) Use a smoothing constant of a = 0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. (Use all decimal places as given in Excel). Time Series Week Forecast Value 1 19 12 3 15 11 5 18 6 13 Does a smoothing constant of 0.2 or 0.4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.4 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential smoothing using a = 0.2. O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the exponential smoothing using a = 0.4.
(d) Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain. The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach. The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach. O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach. (e) Use a smoothing constant of a = 0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. (Use all decimal places as given in Excel). Time Series Week Forecast Value 1 19 12 3 15 11 5 18 6 13 Does a smoothing constant of 0.2 or 0.4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain. The exponential smoothing using a = 0.4 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential smoothing using a = 0.2. O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the exponential smoothing using a = 0.4.
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Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
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Question
answer parts d & e please
Transcribed Image Text:Consider tne following time series data.
Week
1
2 3 4
6.
Value
19
12
15
11
18
13
(a) Construct a time series plot.
20
20
20
18
18
18
16
16
16
14
14
14
12
12
12
10
10
10
2
2
2
+
+
1
3 4
5 6 7
1
3 4
5 6 7
1 2
4
6 7
Week
Week
Week
20
18
16
14
12
2
1
2
3
4
5 6 7
Week
What type of pattern exists in the data?
The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern.
The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern.
The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern.
The data appear to follow a trend pattern.
Time Series Value
Transcribed Image Text:What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
(d) Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using a =
0.2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.
The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach.
The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach.
The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach.
The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach.
(e) Use a smoothing constant of a = 0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. (Use all decimal places as given in Excel).
Time Series
Week
Forecast
Value
1
19
2
12
3
15
11
5
18
6
13
Does a smoothing constant of 0.2 or 0.4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.
The exponential smoothing using a =
0.2.
0.4 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential smoothing using a =
The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the exponential smoothing using a = 0.4.
0.2.
The exponential smoothing using a = 0.4 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the exponential smoothing using a =
The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential smoothing using a =
0.4.
4-
O O O O
O O O O
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