custody, only 12 were actually involved in any wrongdoing. What is the probability that a given suspect is innocent given that the polygraph says he is guilty?

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
icon
Related questions
Question

P1

During a power blackout, 100 persons are
arrested on suspicion of looting. Each is given a
polygraph (lie-detector) test. From experience it
is known that the polygraph is 90% reliable when
administered to a guilty suspect and 98% reliable
when given to someone who is innocent.
Suppose that of the 100 persons taken into
custody, only 12 were actually involved in any
wrongdoing. What is the probability that a given
suspect is innocent given that the polygraph says
he is guilty?
Transcribed Image Text:During a power blackout, 100 persons are arrested on suspicion of looting. Each is given a polygraph (lie-detector) test. From experience it is known that the polygraph is 90% reliable when administered to a guilty suspect and 98% reliable when given to someone who is innocent. Suppose that of the 100 persons taken into custody, only 12 were actually involved in any wrongdoing. What is the probability that a given suspect is innocent given that the polygraph says he is guilty?
Expert Solution
steps

Step by step

Solved in 2 steps

Blurred answer
Recommended textbooks for you
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
Statistics
ISBN:
9781119256830
Author:
Amos Gilat
Publisher:
John Wiley & Sons Inc
Probability and Statistics for Engineering and th…
Probability and Statistics for Engineering and th…
Statistics
ISBN:
9781305251809
Author:
Jay L. Devore
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Statistics for The Behavioral Sciences (MindTap C…
Statistics for The Behavioral Sciences (MindTap C…
Statistics
ISBN:
9781305504912
Author:
Frederick J Gravetter, Larry B. Wallnau
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World (7th E…
Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World (7th E…
Statistics
ISBN:
9780134683416
Author:
Ron Larson, Betsy Farber
Publisher:
PEARSON
The Basic Practice of Statistics
The Basic Practice of Statistics
Statistics
ISBN:
9781319042578
Author:
David S. Moore, William I. Notz, Michael A. Fligner
Publisher:
W. H. Freeman
Introduction to the Practice of Statistics
Introduction to the Practice of Statistics
Statistics
ISBN:
9781319013387
Author:
David S. Moore, George P. McCabe, Bruce A. Craig
Publisher:
W. H. Freeman