Consider two local banks. Bank A has 95 loans outstanding, each for $1.0 million, that it expects will be repaid today. Each loan has a 4% probability of default, in which case the bank is not repaid anything. The chance of default is independent across all the loans. Bank B has only one loan of $95 million outstanding, which it also expects will be repaid today. It also has a 4% probability of not being repaid. Which bank faces less risk? Why? A. The expected payoff is higher for Bank A, but is riskier. I prefer Bank B. B. The expected payoffs are the same, but Bank A is less risky. I prefer Bank A. C. In both cases, the expected loan payoff is the same: $95 million×0.96=$91.2 million. Consequently, I don't care which bank I own. D. The expected payoffs are the same, but Bank A is riskier. I prefer Bank B.
Consider two local banks. Bank A has 95 loans outstanding, each for $1.0 million, that it expects will be repaid today. Each loan has a 4% probability of default, in which case the bank is not repaid anything. The chance of default is independent across all the loans. Bank B has only one loan of $95 million outstanding, which it also expects will be repaid today. It also has a 4% probability of not being repaid. Which bank faces less risk? Why?
A. The expected payoff is higher for Bank A, but is riskier. I prefer Bank B.
B. The expected payoffs are the same, but Bank A is less risky. I prefer Bank A.
C. In both cases, the expected loan payoff is the same: $95 million×0.96=$91.2 million. Consequently, I don't care which bank I own.
D. The expected payoffs are the same, but Bank A is riskier. I prefer Bank B.
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