Consider this problem: A con man has three coins. One coin has heads on both sides, one has tails on both sides, and the other is normal (heads on one side, tails on the other). All coins are of the same denomination. The con man places the three coins in his pocket, selects one, and shows you one side. It is heads. He is willing to bet you money that it is the two-headed coin. His reasoning is that it can’t be the two-tailed coin since a head is showing; therefore, there is a 50-50 chance of it being the two-headed coin.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Consider this problem: A con man has three coins. One coin has heads on both sides, one has tails on both sides, and the other is normal (heads on one side, tails on the other). All coins are of the same denomination. The con man places the three coins in his pocket, selects one, and shows you one side. It is heads. He is willing to bet you money that it is the two-headed coin. His reasoning is that it can’t be the two-tailed coin since a head is showing; therefore, there is a 50-50 chance of it being the two-headed coin.  

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