Consider the following time series data. Week | 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. a. Mean absolute error. b. Mean squared error. c. Mean absolute percentage error. d. What is the forecast for week 7?
Inverse Normal Distribution
The method used for finding the corresponding z-critical value in a normal distribution using the known probability is said to be an inverse normal distribution. The inverse normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution with a family of two parameters.
Mean, Median, Mode
It is a descriptive summary of a data set. It can be defined by using some of the measures. The central tendencies do not provide information regarding individual data from the dataset. However, they give a summary of the data set. The central tendency or measure of central tendency is a central or typical value for a probability distribution.
Z-Scores
A z-score is a unit of measurement used in statistics to describe the position of a raw score in terms of its distance from the mean, measured with reference to standard deviation from the mean. Z-scores are useful in statistics because they allow comparison between two scores that belong to different normal distributions.
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![1. Consider the following time series data.
Week | 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 16 11 17 14
Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the
following measures of forecast accuracy.
a. Mean absolute error.
b. Mean squared error.
c. Mean absolute percentage error.
d. What is the forecast for week 7?
2. Refer to the time series data in exercise 1. Using the average of all the historical data as a
forecast for the next period, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
a. Mean absolute error.
b. Mean squared error.
c. Mean absolute percentage error.
d. What is the forecast for week 7?
3. Exercises 1 and 2 used different forecasting methods. Which method appears to provide
the more accurate forecasts for the historical data? Explain.
4. Consider the following time series data.
Month | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Value
24 13 20 12 19 23 15
a. Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. What
is the forecast for month 8?
b. Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next
period. What is the forecast for month 8?](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Feb94842f-15cf-49b9-8daa-b7a47451e6e8%2F0eec960a-2276-4c5a-a254-a294200a8376%2F01lmju_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
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