Consider the following annual series on the number of people assisted by a county human rces department. resources Year People (in 1003) 1 32 34 3 38 4 34 5 32 6 34 7 30 8 36 9 34 10 38 11 36 uestions: a Create a forecast for periods 5 through 11 using the 4-year moving average values a. and calculate: 1. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) 2. Mean squared error (MSE) 3. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 4. Measure of forecast accuracy for periods 5 through 11. b. Use a smoothing constant of 4 to compute exponential smoothing values to be used as forecasts for periods 2 through 11. Calculate the MSE. Compare the results in Parts a and b. c.

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3. Consider the following annual series on the number of people assisted by a county human
resources department.
Year
People (in 100s)
1
32
2
34
3
38
4.
34
5
32
6
34
7
30
9
34
10
38
11
36
Questions:
a.
Create a forecast for periods 5 through 1l using the 4-year moving average values
and calculate:
1. Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
2. Mean squared error (MSE)
3. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
4. Measure of forecast accuracy for periods 5 through 11.
Use a smoothing constant of .4 to compute exponential smoothing values to be used
as forecasts for periods 2 through 11. Calculate the MSE.
Compare the results in Parts a and b.
b.
c.
6 4 0 6
Transcribed Image Text:3. Consider the following annual series on the number of people assisted by a county human resources department. Year People (in 100s) 1 32 2 34 3 38 4. 34 5 32 6 34 7 30 9 34 10 38 11 36 Questions: a. Create a forecast for periods 5 through 1l using the 4-year moving average values and calculate: 1. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) 2. Mean squared error (MSE) 3. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 4. Measure of forecast accuracy for periods 5 through 11. Use a smoothing constant of .4 to compute exponential smoothing values to be used as forecasts for periods 2 through 11. Calculate the MSE. Compare the results in Parts a and b. b. c. 6 4 0 6
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