Consider an urn which contains red balls and green balls. Initially there is just one green ball and one red ball in the urn. At each time step a ball is chosen randomly from the urn: (1) If the ball is red, then it's returned to the urn with an additional red ball; (i) if the ball is green, then it's returned to the urn with an additional green ball. Let Xn denote the number of red balls in the urn after n draws. Suppose after 100 draws, there are 70 red balls, that is X100 = 70. What is the expected number of red balls in the urn after another 100 draws, that is B(X200|X100 = 70|? Round your answer to the nearest integer. Hint: consider Yn = Xn/(n + 2).

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