Consider a production facility, where the present value of expected future cash inflows from production, V = 100, may fluctuate in line with the random fluctuation in demand (u = 1.8, d = 0.56 per period and the risk-free rate, r = 5%). Suppose management has the option in two years, to contract to half the scale and half the value of the project (c = 50%), and recover $50m (Rc = $50m). Thus, in year 2 management has the flexibility either to maintain the same scale of operations (i.e., receive project value, V, at no extra cost) or contract the scale of operations and receive the recovery amount, whichever is highest. What are the pay-offs of this option at the end nodes (thus in the different states after 2 periods)? The payoffs, F, of the option in the end note states are respectively: F= 324, F = 100, F = 31 The payoffs, F, of the option in the end note states are respectively: F = 0, F = 0, F = 40 The payoffs, F, of the option in the end note states are respectively: F = 112, F = 0, F = 0 The payoffs, F, of the option in the end note states are respectively: F = 0, F = 0, F = 35

Essentials Of Investments
11th Edition
ISBN:9781260013924
Author:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
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Chapter1: Investments: Background And Issues
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11. Consider a production facility, where the present value of expected future cash inflows from
production, V = 100, may fluctuate in line with the random fluctuation in demand (u = 1.8, d = 0.56
per period and the risk-free rate, r = 5%). Suppose management has the option in two years, to
contract to half the scale and half the value of the project (c = 50%), and recover $50m (Rc = $50m).
Thus, in year 2 management has the flexibility either to maintain the same scale of operations (i.e.,
receive project value, V, at no extra cost) or contract the scale of operations and receive the
recovery amount, whichever is highest. What are the pay-offs of this option at the end nodes (thus
in the different states after 2 periods)?
The payoffs, F, of the option in the end note states are respectively: F= 324, F = 100, F = 31
The payoffs, F, of the option in the end note states are respectively: F = 0, F = 0, F = 40
The payoffs, F, of the option in the end note states are respectively: F = 112, F = 0, F = 0
The payoffs, F, of the option in the end note states are respectively: F = 0, F = 0, F = 35
Transcribed Image Text:11. Consider a production facility, where the present value of expected future cash inflows from production, V = 100, may fluctuate in line with the random fluctuation in demand (u = 1.8, d = 0.56 per period and the risk-free rate, r = 5%). Suppose management has the option in two years, to contract to half the scale and half the value of the project (c = 50%), and recover $50m (Rc = $50m). Thus, in year 2 management has the flexibility either to maintain the same scale of operations (i.e., receive project value, V, at no extra cost) or contract the scale of operations and receive the recovery amount, whichever is highest. What are the pay-offs of this option at the end nodes (thus in the different states after 2 periods)? The payoffs, F, of the option in the end note states are respectively: F= 324, F = 100, F = 31 The payoffs, F, of the option in the end note states are respectively: F = 0, F = 0, F = 40 The payoffs, F, of the option in the end note states are respectively: F = 112, F = 0, F = 0 The payoffs, F, of the option in the end note states are respectively: F = 0, F = 0, F = 35
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