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- 5. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D) = 0.81; the probability that it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.85; and probability that it departs and arrives on time is P(DNA) = 0.75. Find the probability that a plane i) Departed on time, given it has arrived on time. ii) Arrives on time , given that it departed on time iii) Departed on time, given has not arrived on time.A construction company employs two sales engineers. Engineer 1 does the work of estimating cost for 70% of jobs bid by the company. Engineer 2 does the work for 30% of jobs bid by the company. It is known that the error rate for engineer 1 is such that 0.02 is the probability of an error when he does the work, whereas the probability of an error in the work of engineer 2 is 0.04. Suppose a bid arrives and a serious error occurs in estimating cost. What is the probability that Engineer 1 did the work?A student will take two trainee selection exams for companies A and B, respectively. He estimates the probability that he will pass the exam.Company A's selection rate is 2/3. In company B, the probability of approval is 3/4. Finally, the probability of being approved in both processes simultaneously is of 50%. Under these conditions, what is the probability of passing only one of the companies?
- Suppose the probability that a male develops some form of cancer in his lifetime is 0.4573. Suppose the probability that a male has at least one false positive test result (meaning the test comes back for cancer when the man does not have it) is 0.51, and that this probability is independent of the probability that a male will develop cancer in his lifetime. • C = a man develops cancer in his lifetime• F = a man has at least one false positive Part (a) Construct a tree diagram of the situation. P(C) = P(F | C) = P(F | C' ) If a test comes up positive, based upon numerical values, can you assume that man has cancer? Justify numerically and explain why or why not. -You cannot assume the man has cancer because there is not enough information given. -You cannot assume the man has cancer because there is a 51% chance that the test is false. -You cannot assume the man has cancer because both the probability of developing cancer in his lifetime and the probability of…1. ABC inc. stock is currently selling for $30, one year from today the stock price can either increase by 20% or decrease by 15%. The probability of an increase in the stock price is equal to 0.3. The one-year risk-free rate is 5% What is the value of a European put that expires in one year with an exercise price of $24. 2. Graphically, show the value and the profit and loss of the following butterfly position: Long in a call with an exercise price of $30, short in 2 calls with an exercise price of $45, and long in a call with an exercise price of 60. All calls are written on the same stock and have the same maturity. 3. "Early exercise of an American option on a stock that does not pay any dividend is not optimal regardless of whether the option is a Call or a Put". True, False, or Uncertain. Explain.Suppose that the rats on the campus of Hypothetical U are found to be carriers of bubonic plague. Eradicating the rats has an estimated cost of $1,000,000 and is expected to reduce the probability a given student dies of the plague from 1/3,000 to zero. Suppose that there are 30,000 students on campus. Suppose further that the administration refuses to eradicate the rats due to the cost. From this information, we can estimate that the administration's willingness to pay to save a student statistical life is no more than $100,000 $1,000,000 $50,000 $33,333
- 9(D)Suppose that we want to estimate the true rate, r, of covid-positive people in a population (where they are reluctant to disclose their status). We use the two-coin-toss methods, and those who toss two heads will lie about their status, reporting the opposite status. After flipping their coins, 32% of the people report that they are covid-positive. What is our estimate for the rate, r, of covid-positive people in this population?It is equally probable that two signals reach a receiver at any instant of the time T. The receiver will be jammed if the time difference in the reception of the two signals is less than T. Find the probability that the receiver will be jammed.
- Consider an M/M/1 queuing system with mean inter arrival time of 4 minutes. The average service time for each customer is 3 minutes. The probability that there are 3 arrivals in the system is closest to O a. None of these O b. 0.105 Oc. 0.895 O d. 0.422You are the teacher of two math classes of 20 and 25 students respectively. To get into a university program, the students need a 75% in the class. Suppose each student has a 0.7 probability of getting atleast a 75% in the class. Let X1 be the number of students in the class of 20 who receive atleast a 75%. Let X2 be the number of students in the class of 25 who receive atleast a 75%. a. Do X1 and X2 fit the binomial setting? Are there any issues? For the rest of the question, assume both X1 and X2 can be modeled by a binomial distri- bution. b. What is the probability that exactly 15 students in the class of 20 get into the pro- gram? Do not use Table C. c. What is the probability that atleast 22 students in the class of 25 get into the pro- gram? Do not use Table C. d. Using Table C, what is the probability that atleast 17 students in the class of 20 get into the program? е. Let X be the number of students in both classes that get into the program. Deter- mine the mean and standard…Assume that we have three coins: The first coin is fair. The second coin is unfair with probability of heads equal to 0.8. The third coin is also unfair with probability of heads equal to 0.3. Consider an experiment involving two successive coin tosses. The result of the first stage of the experiment is determined by the toss of the fair coin. The result of the second stage of the experiment is determined by the toss of a coin, but suppose that the coin that is used depends upon the result of the toss of the fair coin. Specifically, if the toss of the fair coin results in heads, then the second coin is tossed. Otherwise the third coin is tossed. Let Hi and Ti be the events that ith toss resulted in heads and tails, respectively. Answer the following questions. a) Give a sequential description of the experiment using a tree diagram. b) Calculate the probabilities of the possible outcomes of the experiment. c) Calculate P(H2) d) Are the events H1 and H2 independent? Justify…
