(c) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Time Serles Value Week Forecast 1 19 2. 12 19 3 16 17.6 4 11 17.28 18 16.024 13 16.412 X Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE - 21.32 What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) 15.74 (d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a - 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain. O The exponential smoothing using a - 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach. O The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach using a - 0.2. O The exponential smoothing using a - 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach. O The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach using a = 0.2. (e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated fora - 0.2.
(c) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Time Serles Value Week Forecast 1 19 2. 12 19 3 16 17.6 4 11 17.28 18 16.024 13 16.412 X Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE - 21.32 What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) 15.74 (d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a - 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain. O The exponential smoothing using a - 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach. O The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach using a - 0.2. O The exponential smoothing using a - 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach. O The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach using a = 0.2. (e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated fora - 0.2.
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
Related questions
Question
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Please answer part E
Transcribed Image Text:Consider the following time series data.
Week
2
3
4
5
6.
Value
19
12
16
11
18
13
Transcribed Image Text:(c) Use a - 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series.
Time Serles
Week
Forecast
Value
19
12
19
16
17.6
4
11
17.28
18
16.024
13
16.412 X
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE - 21.32
What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
15.74
(d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a - 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
Explain.
O The exponential smoothing using a - 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach.
O The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach using a = 0.2.
O The exponential smoothing using a - 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach.
O The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach using a = 0.2.
(e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2.
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