Bloom's Jeans is searching for new suppliers, and Debbie Bloom, the owner, has narrowed her choices to two sets. Debbie is very concerned about supply disruptions, so she has chosen to use three suppliers no matter what. For option 1, the suppliers are well-established and located in the same country. Debbie calculates the "unique-event" risk for each of them to be 5%. She estimates the probability of a nationwide event that would knock out all three suppliers to be 2.3%. For option 2, the suppliers are newer but located in three different countries. Debbie calculates the "unique-event" risk for each of them to be 19%. She estimates the "super-event" probability that would knock out all three of these suppliers to be 0.3%. Purchasing and transportation costs would be $1,050,000 per year using option 1 and $1,060,000 per year using option 2. A total disruption would create an annualized loss of $550,000. Part 2 a) The probability that all three suppliers will be disrupted using option 1 is _________ (round your response to five decimal places). Part 3 b) The probability that all three suppliers will be disrupted using option 2 is ________ (round your response to five decimal places). Part 4 c) The total annual purchasing and transportation cost plus expected annualized disruption cost for option 1 is $_______ (round your response to the nearest whole number). Part 5 d) The total annual purchasing and transportation cost plus expected annualized disruption cost for option 2 is $______ (round your response to the nearest whole number). Part 6 e) Based on the total annual purchasing and transportation cost plus expected annualized disruption cost, ▼ option 1 option 2 seems best.
Bloom's Jeans is searching for new suppliers, and Debbie Bloom, the owner, has narrowed her choices to two sets. Debbie is very concerned about supply disruptions, so she has chosen to use three suppliers no matter what. For option 1, the suppliers are well-established and located in the same country. Debbie calculates the "unique-event" risk for each of them to be 5%. She estimates the probability of a nationwide event that would knock out all three suppliers to be 2.3%. For option 2, the suppliers are newer but located in three different countries. Debbie calculates the "unique-event" risk for each of them to be 19%. She estimates the "super-event" probability that would knock out all three of these suppliers to be 0.3%. Purchasing and transportation costs would be $1,050,000 per year using option 1 and $1,060,000 per year using option 2. A total disruption would create an annualized loss of $550,000. Part 2 a) The probability that all three suppliers will be disrupted using option 1 is _________ (round your response to five decimal places). Part 3 b) The probability that all three suppliers will be disrupted using option 2 is ________ (round your response to five decimal places). Part 4 c) The total annual purchasing and transportation cost plus expected annualized disruption cost for option 1 is $_______ (round your response to the nearest whole number). Part 5 d) The total annual purchasing and transportation cost plus expected annualized disruption cost for option 2 is $______ (round your response to the nearest whole number). Part 6 e) Based on the total annual purchasing and transportation cost plus expected annualized disruption cost, ▼ option 1 option 2 seems best.
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Bloom's Jeans is searching for new suppliers, and Debbie Bloom, the owner, has narrowed her choices to two sets. Debbie is very concerned about supply disruptions, so she has chosen to use three suppliers no matter what. For option 1, the suppliers are well-established and located in the same country. Debbie calculates the "unique-event" risk for each of them to be
5%.
She estimates the probability of a nationwide event that would knock out all three suppliers to be
2.3%.
For option 2, the suppliers are newer but located in three different countries. Debbie calculates the "unique-event" risk for each of them to be
19%.
She estimates the "super-event" probability that would knock out all three of these suppliers to be
0.3%.
Purchasing and transportation costs would be
$1,050,000
per year using option 1 and
$1,060,000
per year using option 2. A total disruption would create an annualized loss of
$550,000.
Part 2
a) The probability that all three suppliers will be disrupted using option 1 is
_________
(round your response to five decimal places).Part 3
b) The probability that all three suppliers will be disrupted using option 2 is
________
(round your response to five decimal places).Part 4
c) The total annual purchasing and transportation cost plus expected annualized disruption cost for option 1 is
$_______
(round your response to the nearest whole number).Part 5
d) The total annual purchasing and transportation cost plus expected annualized disruption cost for option 2 is
$______
(round your response to the nearest whole number).Part 6
e) Based on the total annual purchasing and transportation cost plus expected annualized disruption cost,
seems best.
▼
option 1
option 2
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