Bert has a record of closing on the first call 70% of the time, with the probability of a sale dropping 10% with each successive call. Riley has a record of closing on the first call 56% of the time, with the probability of a sale dropping 5% with each successive call. If Bert and Riley make their sale on the fourth call to any given client (which is depedent on prior events), what is the probability of a sale? Based on their results, whom should management let go and whom should they keep?  Data from Excel 1st P 2nd P 3rd P 4th P P Bert 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Riley 0.56 0.51 0.46 0.41 0.36

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Bert has a record of closing on the first call 70% of the time, with the probability of a sale dropping 10% with each successive call. Riley has a record of closing on the first call 56% of the time, with the probability of a sale dropping 5% with each successive call. If Bert and Riley make their sale on the fourth call to any given client (which is depedent on prior events), what is the probability of a sale? Based on their results, whom should management let go and whom should they keep?

 Data from Excel

1st P

2nd P

3rd P

4th P

P

Bert

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

Riley

0.56

0.51

0.46

0.41

0.36

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