Based on historical data, an insurance company estimates that a particular customer has a 2.7% likelihood of having an accident in the next year, with the average insurance payout being $1900. If the company charges this customer an annual premium of $200, what is the company's expected value of this insurance policy?
Based on historical data, an insurance company estimates that a particular customer has a 2.7% likelihood of having an accident in the next year, with the average insurance payout being $1900. If the company charges this customer an annual premium of $200, what is the company's expected value of this insurance policy?
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
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Transcribed Image Text:**Expected Value Calculation for an Insurance Policy**
**Problem Statement:**
Based on historical data, an insurance company estimates that a particular customer has a 2.7% likelihood of having an accident in the next year, with the average insurance payout being $1900.
If the company charges this customer an annual premium of $200, what is the company's expected value of this insurance policy?
**Explanation:**
The expected value (EV) of an insurance policy from the company's perspective can be calculated considering both the premium received and the potential payout in case of an accident.
**Step-by-Step Calculation:**
1. **Identify Probabilities and Payouts:**
- Probability of an accident (P_accident): 2.7% or 0.027
- Probability of no accident (P_no_accident): 1 - P_accident = 1 - 0.027 = 0.973
- Average insurance payout if an accident occurs: $1900
- Annual premium paid by the customer: $200
2. **Calculate Expected Payoff from Accidents:**
- If an accident happens, the company pays $1900.
- Expected payout due to an accident: P_accident * payout = 0.027 * $1900 = $51.30
3. **Calculate Expected Premiums Collected:**
- Premium is collected regardless of whether an accident occurs.
- Expected premium collected: P_accident * $200 + P_no_accident * $200 = $200
4. **Calculate Expected Value (EV):**
- The company's expected profit/loss from the policy can be calculated as follows:
EV = Expected Premiums - Expected Payouts
EV = $200 - $51.30
EV = $148.70
**Conclusion:**
The company's expected value of this insurance policy is $148.70. This means, on average, the company expects to make a profit of $148.70 per year per customer from this type of policy.
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