At American Widgets in 2020, across salespeople the average annual sales was $500,000, with a standard deviation of $100,000. Assume that a given salesperson's sales are positively but imperfectly correlated from one year to the next; in the past, year-to-year correlations have been about .5. Also, suppose that average sales (and the standard deviation in sales) across salespeople are expected to be the same in 2021 as they were in 2020. (That is, assume the 2021 overall average will be $500,000 and the 2021 standard deviation will be $100,000.) Now consider salesperson Patty O'Furniture -- she had a quite good year in 2020, with $700,000 in sales. Based on the information available, which of the following would be the most appropriate (i.e., normative) prediction for Patty's 2021 sales? 2. (a) $300,000 (b) $350,000 (c) $400,000 (d) $450,000 (e) $500,000 (f) $550,000 (g) $600,000 (h) $650,000 (i) $700,000 (6) $750,000 Describe your logic and show your work. (Hint: If you're having difficulty here, you may want to consider the method sketched out in Ch 18 of Kahneman's book.)

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Unitary Method

The word “unitary” comes from the word “unit”, which means a single and complete entity. In this method, we find the value of a unit product from the given number of products, and then we solve for the other number of products. 

Speed, Time, and Distance

Imagine you and 3 of your friends are planning to go to the playground at 6 in the evening. Your house is one mile away from the playground and one of your friends named Jim must start at 5 pm to reach the playground by walk. The other two friends are 3 miles away.

Profit and Loss

The amount earned or lost on the sale of one or more items is referred to as the profit or loss on that item.

Units and Measurements

Measurements and comparisons are the foundation of science and engineering. We, therefore, need rules that tell us how things are measured and compared. For these measurements and comparisons, we perform certain experiments, and we will need the experiments to set up the devices.