Argue that P(S Using the doctor's E(S), then compute (S : 1). recommendation, prove that 3 = 2a.

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Argue that P(S = 1) = E(S), then compute P(S = 1).
Using the doctor's recommendation, prove that ß = 2a.
Transcribed Image Text:Argue that P(S = 1) = E(S), then compute P(S = 1). Using the doctor's recommendation, prove that ß = 2a.
Now we are interesed in all patients receiving imipramine. Let O be a proportion of all patients
receving imipramine with NO relapse (called "success"). A common choice for modeling O is
beta distribution, i.e.
r(a+B)
I(a)r(8)
ga-1(1 – 0)3-'I(0,1)(0),
fe(0) =
where a, B > 0. We need to decide what values of a and ß. One possible solution is to use
expert opinion. Suppose that a doctor told you that based on his experiences in running clinical
trials similar to this study, the probability of success should be around 1/3. Let S be a binary
variable, such as
so
a patient is not a success
S :
a patient is a success.
Thus, given a probability of success O = 0, we assume that P(S = 1|O = 0) = 0.
Transcribed Image Text:Now we are interesed in all patients receiving imipramine. Let O be a proportion of all patients receving imipramine with NO relapse (called "success"). A common choice for modeling O is beta distribution, i.e. r(a+B) I(a)r(8) ga-1(1 – 0)3-'I(0,1)(0), fe(0) = where a, B > 0. We need to decide what values of a and ß. One possible solution is to use expert opinion. Suppose that a doctor told you that based on his experiences in running clinical trials similar to this study, the probability of success should be around 1/3. Let S be a binary variable, such as so a patient is not a success S : a patient is a success. Thus, given a probability of success O = 0, we assume that P(S = 1|O = 0) = 0.
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