Anthony has just received Covid-19 test results from a patient named Melania. The accuracy of the test is as follows: the probability the test will be positive if Melania has Covid-19 is p, and the probability the test will be positive if Melania does not have Covid-19 is q. The proportion of the population that has Covid-19 is 7. The test comes back positive. Anthony has no information about Melania's symptoms. (For reasons he does not understand.)

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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8
Anthony has just received Covid-19 test results from a patient named Melania. The accuracy of the
test is as follows: the probability the test will be positive if Melania has Covid-19 is p, and the
probability the test will be positive if Melania does not have Covid-19 is q. The proportion of the
population that has Covid-19 is . The test comes back positive. Anthony has no information about
Melania's symptoms. (For reasons he does not understand.)
Transcribed Image Text:Anthony has just received Covid-19 test results from a patient named Melania. The accuracy of the test is as follows: the probability the test will be positive if Melania has Covid-19 is p, and the probability the test will be positive if Melania does not have Covid-19 is q. The proportion of the population that has Covid-19 is . The test comes back positive. Anthony has no information about Melania's symptoms. (For reasons he does not understand.)
Problem 3c
What value of yr would result in the simple model of base-rate neglect we learned in class?
O.67
O 5
O 33
25
Question 24
Problem 3d
If p = .95, q = .05, and 7 = .1, what must be the value of y if Anthony believes that the
probability Melania has Covid-19 is .9?
3.214
O.5
1.05
3.57
Transcribed Image Text:Problem 3c What value of yr would result in the simple model of base-rate neglect we learned in class? O.67 O 5 O 33 25 Question 24 Problem 3d If p = .95, q = .05, and 7 = .1, what must be the value of y if Anthony believes that the probability Melania has Covid-19 is .9? 3.214 O.5 1.05 3.57
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