Answer part a of the question below. Show all work. When diagnosing a disease (genetically) in a sample of patients. we let X ∈ {0, 1} be a random variable that is binary where X = 1 reflects disease presense, and X = 0 reflects absense of the disease. We are conducting a blood test that returns some continuous marker. A continuous variable expressing this marker is −∞ < Y < ∞. We then use the following hierarchical model: X ∼ Ber(p) Y | X ∼ N(µ0(1 − X) + µ1X , σ2) a. For an event with probability

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Answer part a of the question below. Show all work.

When diagnosing a disease (genetically) in a sample of patients.
we let X ∈ {0, 1} be a random variable that is binary where X = 1 reflects disease presense, and X = 0 reflects absense of the disease. We are conducting a blood test that returns some continuous marker. A continuous variable expressing this marker is −∞ < Y < ∞. We then use the following hierarchical model:

X ∼ Ber(p)
Y | X ∼ N(µ0(1 − X) + µ1X , σ2)

a. For an event with probability p, the odds of the event is defined as p/1−p. With a higher odds, an event is more likely. With the odds of 1 indicates the event is as likely to occur as not likely. i.e. we are maximally uncertain about the status of the diseae. Find the conditional odds of disease given Y ,
P(X=1|y)/(1−P (X=1|y)). What is the odds of disease if µ1 = µ0?
What is the interpretation behind this result?

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