An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities. P(high-quality oil) = 0.55 P(medium-quality oil) = 0.20 P(no oil) = 0.25 a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)? b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test are given below. P(soil high-quality oil) = 0.20 P(soil medium-quality oil) = 0.90 P(soil no oil) = 0.20 Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4 decimals). P(high-quality oil soil) P(medium-quality oil soil) P(no oil soil) What is the new probability of finding oil (to 4 decimals)? According to the revised probabilities, what is the quality of oil that is most likely to be found? - Select your answer - +

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities.
P(high-quality oil) = 0.55
P(medium-quality oil)
= 0.20
P(no oil) = 0.25
a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)?
X
b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test are given below.
P(soil high-quality oil) = 0.20
P(soil medium-quality oil) = 0.90
P(soil no oil)
Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4 decimals).
= 0.20
P(high-quality oil soil)
P(medium-quality oil|soil)
P(no oil soil)
What is the new probability of finding oil (to 4 decimals)?
According to the revised probabilities, what is the quality of oil that is most likely to be found?
- Select your answer - +
Transcribed Image Text:An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities. P(high-quality oil) = 0.55 P(medium-quality oil) = 0.20 P(no oil) = 0.25 a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)? X b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test are given below. P(soil high-quality oil) = 0.20 P(soil medium-quality oil) = 0.90 P(soil no oil) Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4 decimals). = 0.20 P(high-quality oil soil) P(medium-quality oil|soil) P(no oil soil) What is the new probability of finding oil (to 4 decimals)? According to the revised probabilities, what is the quality of oil that is most likely to be found? - Select your answer - +
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