An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities. P(high-quality oil) = 0.55 P(medium-quality oil) = 0.20 P(no oil) = 0.25 a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)? b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test are given below. P(soil high-quality oil) = 0.20 P(soil medium-quality oil) = 0.90 P(soil no oil) = 0.20 Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4 decimals). P(high-quality oil soil) P(medium-quality oil soil) P(no oil soil) What is the new probability of finding oil (to 4 decimals)? According to the revised probabilities, what is the quality of oil that is most likely to be found? - Select your answer - +
An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities. P(high-quality oil) = 0.55 P(medium-quality oil) = 0.20 P(no oil) = 0.25 a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)? b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test are given below. P(soil high-quality oil) = 0.20 P(soil medium-quality oil) = 0.90 P(soil no oil) = 0.20 Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4 decimals). P(high-quality oil soil) P(medium-quality oil soil) P(no oil soil) What is the new probability of finding oil (to 4 decimals)? According to the revised probabilities, what is the quality of oil that is most likely to be found? - Select your answer - +
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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![An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities.
\[
P(\text{high-quality oil}) = 0.55
\]
\[
P(\text{medium-quality oil}) = 0.20
\]
\[
P(\text{no oil}) = 0.25
\]
**a.** What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)?
[Text box for answer] [Red X indicating incorrect submission]
**b.** After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test are given below.
\[
P(\text{soil|high-quality oil}) = 0.20
\]
\[
P(\text{soil|medium-quality oil}) = 0.90
\]
\[
P(\text{soil|no oil}) = 0.20
\]
Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4 decimals).
\[
P(\text{high-quality oil|soil}) \quad \text{[Text box for answer]} \quad [Red X]
\]
\[
P(\text{medium-quality oil|soil}) \quad \text{[Text box for answer]} \quad [Red X]
\]
\[
P(\text{no oil|soil}) \quad \text{[Text box for answer]} \quad [Red X]
\]
What is the new probability of finding oil (to 4 decimals)?
[Text box for answer] [Red X]
According to the revised probabilities, what is the quality of oil that is most likely to be found?
[- Select your answer -]](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Ff1ac4a5c-5c91-4743-9545-fc03c7695e62%2F091e271c-76ec-448a-b15d-f73c0784a515%2Fs0tihz6_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities.
\[
P(\text{high-quality oil}) = 0.55
\]
\[
P(\text{medium-quality oil}) = 0.20
\]
\[
P(\text{no oil}) = 0.25
\]
**a.** What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)?
[Text box for answer] [Red X indicating incorrect submission]
**b.** After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test are given below.
\[
P(\text{soil|high-quality oil}) = 0.20
\]
\[
P(\text{soil|medium-quality oil}) = 0.90
\]
\[
P(\text{soil|no oil}) = 0.20
\]
Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4 decimals).
\[
P(\text{high-quality oil|soil}) \quad \text{[Text box for answer]} \quad [Red X]
\]
\[
P(\text{medium-quality oil|soil}) \quad \text{[Text box for answer]} \quad [Red X]
\]
\[
P(\text{no oil|soil}) \quad \text{[Text box for answer]} \quad [Red X]
\]
What is the new probability of finding oil (to 4 decimals)?
[Text box for answer] [Red X]
According to the revised probabilities, what is the quality of oil that is most likely to be found?
[- Select your answer -]
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