An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities. P(high-quality oil) = 0.45 P(medium-quality oil) = 0.20 %3D P(no oil) = 0.35 %3D a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)? b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soll test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test are given below. P(soil|high-quality oil) = 0.20 P(soil medium-quality oil) = 0.75 %3D P(soil no oil) = 0.20 Given the sol found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4 decimals). P(high-quality oil|soil) P(medium-quality oilsoil)

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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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P(no oil) = 0.35
a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)?
b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular typ
soil identified by the test are given below.
P(soilhigh-quality oil) = 0.20
P(soil medium-quality oil) = 0.75
P(soil no oil) = 0.20
Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4
decimals).
P(high-quality oil soil)
P(medium-quality oil|soil)
P(no oil|soil)
What is the new probability of finding oil (to 4 decimals)?.
According to the revised probabilities, what is the quality of oil that is most likely to be found?
- Select your answer-
Transcribed Image Text:P(no oil) = 0.35 a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)? b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular typ soil identified by the test are given below. P(soilhigh-quality oil) = 0.20 P(soil medium-quality oil) = 0.75 P(soil no oil) = 0.20 Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4 decimals). P(high-quality oil soil) P(medium-quality oil|soil) P(no oil|soil) What is the new probability of finding oil (to 4 decimals)?. According to the revised probabilities, what is the quality of oil that is most likely to be found? - Select your answer-
An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior
probabilities.
P(high-quality oil) = 0.45
!!
P(medium-quality oil) = 0.20
%3D
P(no oil) = 0.35
%3D
a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)?
b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soll test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of
soil identified by the test are given below.
P(soil|high-quality oil) = 0.20
%3D
P(soil medium-quality oil) = 0.75
%3D
P(soil no oil) = 0.20
Given the sol found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4
decimals).
P(high-quality oil|soil)
P(medium-quality oilsoil)
Transcribed Image Text:An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities. P(high-quality oil) = 0.45 !! P(medium-quality oil) = 0.20 %3D P(no oil) = 0.35 %3D a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)? b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soll test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test are given below. P(soil|high-quality oil) = 0.20 %3D P(soil medium-quality oil) = 0.75 %3D P(soil no oil) = 0.20 Given the sol found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4 decimals). P(high-quality oil|soil) P(medium-quality oilsoil)
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