An experiment measures the distribution of a variable in 5 bins. The established theory predicts for this measurement a linear decrease with the bin number: bin 1 2 3 4 5 prediction 32 28 24 22 18 The experiment measures the following number of events: bin 1 2 3 45 21 14 8 observed events: 36 26 a) Formulate the null-hypothesis Ho. b) Perform a x2 test and comment on the outcome. c) Now derive the p-value and state whether the theory is excluded at the 30 significance level. State the probability for a type-1 error. d) The experiment realizes that their measured numbers per bin are affected by a Gaussian systematic uncertainty of σsys = 3.5. This uncertainty is not correlated across the bins. Perform the necessary calculations and derive an updated statement about whether the theory is excluded at a significance of 30. Suggest a way to improve the sensitivity of the measurement.

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An experiment measures the distribution of a variable in 5 bins. The established theory predicts
for this measurement a linear decrease with the bin number:
bin
1 2 3 4 5
prediction 32 28 24 22 18
The experiment measures the following number of events:
bin
1 2 3
45
21
14 8
observed events: 36 26
a) Formulate the null-hypothesis Ho.
Transcribed Image Text:An experiment measures the distribution of a variable in 5 bins. The established theory predicts for this measurement a linear decrease with the bin number: bin 1 2 3 4 5 prediction 32 28 24 22 18 The experiment measures the following number of events: bin 1 2 3 45 21 14 8 observed events: 36 26 a) Formulate the null-hypothesis Ho.
b) Perform a x2 test and comment on the outcome.
c)
Now derive the p-value and state whether the theory is excluded at the 30 significance
level. State the probability for a type-1 error.
d) The experiment realizes that their measured numbers per bin are affected by a Gaussian
systematic uncertainty of σsys = 3.5. This uncertainty is not correlated across the bins.
Perform the necessary calculations and derive an updated statement about whether the
theory is excluded at a significance of 30. Suggest a way to improve the sensitivity of the
measurement.
Transcribed Image Text:b) Perform a x2 test and comment on the outcome. c) Now derive the p-value and state whether the theory is excluded at the 30 significance level. State the probability for a type-1 error. d) The experiment realizes that their measured numbers per bin are affected by a Gaussian systematic uncertainty of σsys = 3.5. This uncertainty is not correlated across the bins. Perform the necessary calculations and derive an updated statement about whether the theory is excluded at a significance of 30. Suggest a way to improve the sensitivity of the measurement.
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