An article in the Transportation Research Part E Journal [Arc Routing Problems to Restore Connectivity of a Road Network" (2016)] considered ways of re-establishing the connectivity of road networks after a natural disaster-earthquake. Estimates. of the probabilities of a randomly chosen road being under light debris, moderate debris, and heavy debris conditions after different disaster magnitudes are shown in the following table. Disaster magnitude is equally likely to be low, moderate or high. OYes, because P(ANB) P(A) P(B) OYes, because P(ANB)=P(A) P(B) O No, because P(ANB)=P(A) P(B) O No, because Disaster Magnitude P(ANB) P(A) P(B) Low Moderate High Total Let A and B denote the events that the earthquake magnitude is high and the road debris is moderate. Are these events independent? Light Moderate Heavy Total Debris Debris Debris 5 100 10 100 100 35 300 80 50 30 160 15 40 50 105 20

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An article in the *Transportation Research Part E Journal* [“Arc Routing Problems to Restore Connectivity of a Road Network” (2016)] considered ways of re-establishing the connectivity of road networks after a natural disaster—earthquake. Estimates of the probabilities of a randomly chosen road being under light debris, moderate debris, and heavy debris conditions after different disaster magnitudes are shown in the following table. Disaster magnitude is equally likely to be low, moderate or high.

| Disaster Magnitude | Light Debris | Moderate Debris | Heavy Debris | Total |
|---------------------|--------------|----------------|--------------|-------|
| Low                 | 80           | 15             | 5            | 100   |
| Moderate            | 50           | 40             | 10           | 100   |
| High                | 30           | 50             | 20           | 100   |
| Total               | 160          | 105            | 35           | 300   |

Let \( A \) and \( B \) denote the events that the earthquake magnitude is high and the road debris is moderate. Are these events independent?

- O Yes, because \( P(A \cap B) \ne P(A)P(B) \)
  
- O Yes, because \( P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B) \)
  
- O No, because \( P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B) \)
  
- O No, because \( P(A \cap B) \ne P(A)P(B) \)
Transcribed Image Text:An article in the *Transportation Research Part E Journal* [“Arc Routing Problems to Restore Connectivity of a Road Network” (2016)] considered ways of re-establishing the connectivity of road networks after a natural disaster—earthquake. Estimates of the probabilities of a randomly chosen road being under light debris, moderate debris, and heavy debris conditions after different disaster magnitudes are shown in the following table. Disaster magnitude is equally likely to be low, moderate or high. | Disaster Magnitude | Light Debris | Moderate Debris | Heavy Debris | Total | |---------------------|--------------|----------------|--------------|-------| | Low | 80 | 15 | 5 | 100 | | Moderate | 50 | 40 | 10 | 100 | | High | 30 | 50 | 20 | 100 | | Total | 160 | 105 | 35 | 300 | Let \( A \) and \( B \) denote the events that the earthquake magnitude is high and the road debris is moderate. Are these events independent? - O Yes, because \( P(A \cap B) \ne P(A)P(B) \) - O Yes, because \( P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B) \) - O No, because \( P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B) \) - O No, because \( P(A \cap B) \ne P(A)P(B) \)
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Disaster Magnitude Light Debris Moderate Debris Heavy Debris Total
Low 80 15 5 100
Moderate 50 40 10 100
High 30 50 20 100
Total 160 105 35 300

Given that a road had heavy debris after an earthquake , what is the conditional probability that the disaster magnitude was high ?

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