Allen Young has always been proud of his personal investment strategies and has done very well over the past several years. He invests primarily in the stock market. Over the past several months, however, Allen has become concerned about the stock market as a good investment. In some cases, it would have been better for Allen to have his money in a bank than in the market. During the next year, Allen must decide whether to invest $10,000 in the stock market or a certificate of deposit (CD) at an interest rate of 9%. If the market is good, Allen believes that he could get a 14% return on his money. With a fair market, he expects to get an 8% return. If the market is bad, he will most likely get no return at all—in other words, the return would be 0%. Allen estimates that the probability of a good market is 0.4, the probability of a fair market is 0.4, and the probability of a bad market is 0.2, and he wishes to maximize his long-run average return. ANALYSE the best decision that Allen could make in order to have a good return on investment.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Allen Young has always been proud of his personal investment strategies and has
done very well over the past several years. He invests primarily in the stock market.
Over the past several months, however, Allen has become concerned about the stock
market as a good investment. In some cases, it would have been better for Allen to
have his money in a bank than in the market. During the next year, Allen must decide
whether to invest $10,000 in the stock market or a certificate of deposit (CD) at an
interest rate of 9%. If the market is good, Allen believes that he could get a 14%
return on his money. With a fair market, he expects to get an 8% return. If the market
is bad, he will most likely get no return at all—in other words, the return would be
0%. Allen estimates that the probability of a good market is 0.4, the probability of a
fair market is 0.4, and the probability of a bad market is 0.2, and he wishes to
maximize his long-run average return.
ANALYSE the best decision that Allen could make in order to have a good return on
investment.

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