Aileen, a Scottish spy, has three fake identities that she uses to get information. The process is really quite involved, but she uses a Markov chain process to make it more difficult for her Irish adversaries to track her: "Hope" (state 1), "Trixie"(state 2), and "Fiona" (state 3). The transition matrix is .5 .5 Р— .2 .2 .6 .4 .1 .5 On the first observation, Aileen used "Trixie" as her identity. Which of the three fake identities is she most likely to have used on the third observation? Hope and Fiona are equally likely O Hope and Trixie are equally likely Fiona Ноpе None of the others are correct Trixie

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Aileen, a Scottish spy, has three fake identities that she uses to get information. The process is really
quite involved, but she uses a Markov chain process to make it more difficult for her Irish adversaries
to track her: "Hope" (state 1), "Trixie"(state 2), and "Fiona" (state 3). The transition matrix is
.5
.5
P =
.2
.2
.6
.4
.1
.5
On the first observation, Aileen used "Trixie" as her identity. Which of the three fake identities is she
most likely to have used on the third observation?
Hope and Fiona are equally likely
Hope and Trixie are equally likely
O Fiona
Ноpе
None of the others are correct
Trixie
Transcribed Image Text:Aileen, a Scottish spy, has three fake identities that she uses to get information. The process is really quite involved, but she uses a Markov chain process to make it more difficult for her Irish adversaries to track her: "Hope" (state 1), "Trixie"(state 2), and "Fiona" (state 3). The transition matrix is .5 .5 P = .2 .2 .6 .4 .1 .5 On the first observation, Aileen used "Trixie" as her identity. Which of the three fake identities is she most likely to have used on the third observation? Hope and Fiona are equally likely Hope and Trixie are equally likely O Fiona Ноpе None of the others are correct Trixie
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