Aileen, a Scottish spy, has three fake identities that she uses to get information. The process isreally quite involved, but she uses a Markov chain process to make it more difficult for her Irishadversaries to track her: "Hope" (state 1), "Trixie"(state 2), and "Fiona" (state 3). The transitionmatrix is.5.5P =.1.9.6.4On the first observation, Aileen used "Fiona" as her identity. Which of the three fake identities isshe most likely to have used on the third observation?O Fiona and Trixie are equally likelyFionaO Hope and Fiona are equally likelyNone of the others are correctHopeTrixie

Given information: The transition matrix of a Markov chain is as given below:

Aileen, a Scottish spy, has three fake identities that she uses to get information. The process is really quite involved, but she uses a Markov chain process to make it more difficult for her Irish adversaries to track her: "Hope" (state 1), "Trixie"(state 2), and "Fiona" (state 3). The transition matrix is .5 0 .5]

Aileen, a Scottish spy, has three fake identities that she uses to get information. The process is really quite involved, but she uses a Markov chain process to make it more difficult for her Irish adversaries to track her: "Hope" (state 1), "Trixie"(state 2), and "Fiona" (state 3). The transition matrix is .5 0 .5]

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

A company wanted to test whether an employee could detect the presence of an alarm in a certain environment. There are 30 trails, divided evenly with presence and absence of the alarm. The employee indicated the presence of the alarm 16 times, but he was only correct 13 times. a) Create a decision/response matrix that reflects all the participant responses. b) Compute the (i) hit, (ii) false alarm, (iii) correct rejection, and (iv) miss rates. c) Another employee also took part in the test, he had a hit rate of 0.82 and a false alarm rate of 0.15. Compare these two employees in terms of the d' and ß.
The Tiger Sports Shop1 has hired you as an analyst to understand its market position with respect to Clemson merchandise. It is particularly concerned about its major competitor, Mr. Knickerbocker, and which Clemson-related store has the ‘lead’ market share. Recent history has suggested that which Clemson-related store has the ‘lead market share’ can be modeled as a Markov Chain using three states: TSS (Tiger Sports Shop), MK (Mr. Knickerbocker), and Other Company (OC). Data on the lead market share is taken monthly and you have constructed the following one-step transition probability matrix from past data in the picture. a) The current state of the lead market share in October is that Tiger Sports Shop is in the lead (i.e., the Markov Chain in October is TSS). Tiger Sports Shop is considering launching a new brand in February only if it has the lead market share in January. Determine the probability that TSS will launch this new brand. Please show any equations or matrices…
A car rental company has two locations. Each week, 80% of the cars rented at location A are returned to location A and the rest location B. Of the cars rented at location B, 30% are returned to location B by the end of the week and the rest to location A. a. Make a transition diagram for this process. b. Write the transition matrix T for this process. cIf 50% of the company's cars start this week at location A, and 50% at location B, find the proportion of cars that will be at each location one week later Label your answers. d. Write and solve a system of equations to find the stable distribution (correct to 3 decimal places) for this Markov process. Show all calculations and label the row operations.
Brady's, a conventional department store, and ValueMart, a discount department store, are both considering opening new stores at one of two possible sites: the Civic Center and North Shore Plaza. The strategies available to the management of each store are given in the following payoff matrix, where each entry represents the amounts (in hundreds of thousands of dollars) either gained or lost by one business from or to the other as a result of the sites selected. ValueMart Civic Center North Shore Plaza Center Plaza Brady's (a) Is the game strictly determined? O Yes O No 3 -6 (b) What is the value of the game? (If it is not strictly determined, enter DNE.) (c) Determine the best strategy for the management of each store (that is, determine the ideal locations for each store). O The ideal location for Brady's is the Civic Center and the ideal location for the ValueMart is the North Shore Plaza. O There is no ideal location for either Brady's or the ValueMart. (DNE) O The ideal location…
A computer store sells three types of microcomputers, brand A, brand B, and brand C. Of the computers they sell, 60% are brand A, 25% are brand B, and 15% are brand C. They have found that 20% of the brand A computers, 15% of the brand B computers, and 10% of brand C computers are returned for service during the warranty period. If a computer is returned for service during the warranty period, what is the probability that it is a brand A computer? A brand B computer? A brand C computer? The probability that it is a brand A computer is (Type a decimal. Round to three decimal places if needed.) The probability that it is a brand B computer is (Type a decimal. Round to three decimal places if needed.) The probability that it is a brand C computer is (Type a decimal. Round to three decimal places if needed.)
In an office complex of 1000 employees, on any given day some are at work and the rest are absent. It is known that if an employee is at work today, there is an 85% chance that she will be at work tomorrow, and if the employee is absent today, there is a 70% chance that she will be absent tomorrow. Suppose that today there are 740 employees at work. (A graphing calculator is recommended.) (a) Find the transition matrix A for this scenario. at work absent A = (b) Predict the number that will be at work five days from now. (Round your answer to the nearest integer.) employees (c) Find the steady-state vector x. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
↑ The 1990 census reported that 32% of the households in Middletown were homeowners and the remainder were renters. During the next decade, 10% of the homeowners became rent and the rest continued to be homeowners. Similarly, 14% of the renters became homeowners and the rest continued to rent (A) Fill in the appropriate transition matrix for this process. Homeowners Homeowners Renters Renters AR NE
A market demand has 3 possible states namely GOOD, NORMAL and BAD for each period. At each period there are 2 possible decisions for the manager as do nothing/ make promotion. The transition matrix of states regarding for possible decisions are given as below Pof do nothing GOOD NORMAL BAD GOOD 0.4 0.2 04 0.3 0.2 0.5 NORMAL 0.5 BAD 0.1 0.4 Pof make promotion GOOD NORMAL BAD 0.4 0.4 0.5 GOOD 0.2 NORMAL 04 0.1 BAD 0.3 0.4 0.3 It is known that the income for each period when the state in GOOD, NORMAL and BAD are 10000, 7000, 2000. Cost for do nothing is 0, and make promotion is 3000. a) Given at period 0 the state is NORMAL, estimate expected beneft obtain two periods when the sequence of decisions is do nothing, do nothing b) Given at period 0 the state is NORMAL, estimate expected beneft obtain two periods when the sequence of decisions is make promotion, make promotion
The main topic is Markov Chains:Students in Geology class never know what is going to happen in the class, as the teacher may: give them a pop quiz, take them to field practice, analyze the topic of the day, or lecture on a special topic.If one day there is a test, the next day there is always a field practice.If one day there is field practice, the next day there is no practice or test, but there is still a chance of the day's topic or special lecture.of the day or of the special lecture.If on a certain day the topic is tested, the probabilities for the next day are ¼ for the test, 1/6 for the topic and 1/3 for the lecture.and 1/3 for the lecture.If one day there is a lecture, the odds for the next day are ¼ for the test, 1/8 for the practice, 1/8 for the topic analysis and ½ for the lecture.for the analysis of the topic and ½ for the lecture.One of the students has calculated that they can expect quizzes 43/287 of the lecture days; field practice72/287 of the class days; topic…
solve using Markov Chain
Flowering plant species can be subject to inbreeding, through self-fertilization. Some species have adaptations that help to avoid this inbreeding, through asymmetric flower structures. If the flower structures are “right-handed”, then a pollinator visiting the right-handed flower will get pollen on its left side, and thus, only be able to deposit the pollen on a left-handed flower that it visits later on. [Similarly, pollinator visits to left-handed plants will result in pollen deposits on right-handed plants.] You are interested in studying a particular plant species called Lupinus perennis, that demonstrates handedness, and you wish to know whether one type of handedness is more prevalent than the other (e.g., are left-handed plants more prevalent than right-handed plants?) You sample 30 L. perennis plants, and find that 20 plants are right-handed, and 10 plants are left-handed. Is one type of handedness more prevalent than the other? What is your null hypothesis? Report the…
b) Consider the following game matrix: -10 -2 -1 7 -5 20 -10-10 7 -1 2 7 -10 7 -1 -10 Determine optimal mixed strategies to each player and give the value of the game. -1 7 -20 -10 -1 2-10 7 -5 20 -1 -1