Aileen, a Scottish spy, has three fake identities that she uses to get information. The process is really quite involved, but she uses a Markov chain process to make it more difficult for her Irish adversaries to track her: "Hope" (state 1), "Trixie"(state 2), and "Fiona" (state 3). The transition matrix is .5 0 .5]

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Aileen, a Scottish spy, has three fake identities that she uses to get information. The process is
really quite involved, but she uses a Markov chain process to make it more difficult for her Irish
adversaries to track her: "Hope" (state 1), "Trixie"(state 2), and "Fiona" (state 3). The transition
matrix is
.5
.5
P =
.1
.9
.6
.4
On the first observation, Aileen used "Fiona" as her identity. Which of the three fake identities is
she most likely to have used on the third observation?
O Fiona and Trixie are equally likely
Fiona
O Hope and Fiona are equally likely
None of the others are correct
Hope
Trixie
Transcribed Image Text:Aileen, a Scottish spy, has three fake identities that she uses to get information. The process is really quite involved, but she uses a Markov chain process to make it more difficult for her Irish adversaries to track her: "Hope" (state 1), "Trixie"(state 2), and "Fiona" (state 3). The transition matrix is .5 .5 P = .1 .9 .6 .4 On the first observation, Aileen used "Fiona" as her identity. Which of the three fake identities is she most likely to have used on the third observation? O Fiona and Trixie are equally likely Fiona O Hope and Fiona are equally likely None of the others are correct Hope Trixie
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