a. Compute the expected value for each decision and select the best one. b. Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss for each product. c. Determine how much the firm would be willing to pay to a market research firm to gain better information about future market conditions.

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
14th Edition
ISBN:9780190931919
Author:NEWNAN
Publisher:NEWNAN
Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1QTC
icon
Related questions
Question
10:07 AM
3. The Miramar Company is going to introduce one of three new products: a widget,
a hummer, or a nimnot. The market conditions (favorable, stable, or unfavorable)
will determine the profit or loss the company realizes, as shown in the following
payoff table:
Market Conditions
Favorable
Stable
Unfavorable
Product
.2
.7
.1
Widget
$120,000
$70,000
$-30,000
20,000
30,000
Hummer
60,000
40,000
Nimnot
35,000
30,000
a. Compute the expected value for each decision and select the best one.
b. Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss for
each product.
c. Determine how much the firm would be willing to pay to a market research firm to
gain better information about future market conditions.
d. The Miramar Company is considering contracting with a market research firm to do a
survey to determine future market conditions. The results of the survey will indicate
either positive or negative market conditions. There is a 0.60 probability of a positive
report, given favorable conditions; a 0,30 probability of a positive report, given stable
conditions; and a 0.10 probability of a positive report, given unfavorable conditions.
There is a 0.90 probability of a negative report, given unfavorable conditions; a 0.70
probability, given stable conditions; and a 0.40 probability, given favorable
conditions. Using decision tree analysis and posterior probability tables, determine
the decision strategy the company should follow, the expected value of the strategy,
and the maximum amount the company should pay the market research firm for the
survey results.
Transcribed Image Text:10:07 AM 3. The Miramar Company is going to introduce one of three new products: a widget, a hummer, or a nimnot. The market conditions (favorable, stable, or unfavorable) will determine the profit or loss the company realizes, as shown in the following payoff table: Market Conditions Favorable Stable Unfavorable Product .2 .7 .1 Widget $120,000 $70,000 $-30,000 20,000 30,000 Hummer 60,000 40,000 Nimnot 35,000 30,000 a. Compute the expected value for each decision and select the best one. b. Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss for each product. c. Determine how much the firm would be willing to pay to a market research firm to gain better information about future market conditions. d. The Miramar Company is considering contracting with a market research firm to do a survey to determine future market conditions. The results of the survey will indicate either positive or negative market conditions. There is a 0.60 probability of a positive report, given favorable conditions; a 0,30 probability of a positive report, given stable conditions; and a 0.10 probability of a positive report, given unfavorable conditions. There is a 0.90 probability of a negative report, given unfavorable conditions; a 0.70 probability, given stable conditions; and a 0.40 probability, given favorable conditions. Using decision tree analysis and posterior probability tables, determine the decision strategy the company should follow, the expected value of the strategy, and the maximum amount the company should pay the market research firm for the survey results.
Expert Solution
steps

Step by step

Solved in 8 steps

Blurred answer
Knowledge Booster
Bonus Compensation Scheme
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, economics and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.
Similar questions
  • SEE MORE QUESTIONS
Recommended textbooks for you
ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economics
ISBN:
9780190931919
Author:
NEWNAN
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
Principles of Economics (12th Edition)
Principles of Economics (12th Edition)
Economics
ISBN:
9780134078779
Author:
Karl E. Case, Ray C. Fair, Sharon E. Oster
Publisher:
PEARSON
Engineering Economy (17th Edition)
Engineering Economy (17th Edition)
Economics
ISBN:
9780134870069
Author:
William G. Sullivan, Elin M. Wicks, C. Patrick Koelling
Publisher:
PEARSON
Principles of Economics (MindTap Course List)
Principles of Economics (MindTap Course List)
Economics
ISBN:
9781305585126
Author:
N. Gregory Mankiw
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach
Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach
Economics
ISBN:
9781337106665
Author:
Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Managerial Economics & Business Strategy (Mcgraw-…
Managerial Economics & Business Strategy (Mcgraw-…
Economics
ISBN:
9781259290619
Author:
Michael Baye, Jeff Prince
Publisher:
McGraw-Hill Education