A university is applying classification methods in order to identify alumni who may be interested in donating money. The university has a database of 58,205 alumni profiles containing numerous variables. Of these 58,205 alumni, only 576 have donated in the past. The university has oversampled the data and trained a random forest of 100 classification trees. For a cutoff value of 0.5, the following confusion matrix summarizes the performance of the random forest on a validation set: Actual Donation Predicted No Donation 20 No Donation 23,439 The following table lists some information on individual observations from the validation set: Observation ID A B с Donation 268 5,375 Actual Class Donation No Donation No Donation Probability of Donation 0.8 0.1 0.6 (a) Choose the correct explanation for how the probability of Donation was computed for the three observations. (i) The probability of Donation for each observation is the proportion of the 100 individual classification trees that classified the observation as "Donation." (ii) The probability of Donation for each observation is the proportion of the 100 individual classification trees that classified the observation as "No Donation." (iii) The probability of Donation for each observation is the ratio of the individual classification trees that classified the observation as "Donation" and those that classified it as "No Donation." If required, round your answers to one decimal place. The probability of Donation for Observation A is forest. Predicted Class (iv) The probability of Donation for each observation is the ratio of the individual classification trees that classified the observation as "No Donation" and those that classified it as "Donation." - Select your answer - ✓ Why were Observations A and C classified as Donation and Observation B was classified as No Donation? The probability of Donation for Observation B is forest. Donation No Donation Donation The probability of Donation for Observation C is forest. . It is - Select your answer - ✓than 0.5, so Observation A is classified as Donation by the random . It is . It is - Select your answer than 0.5, so Observation B is classified as No Donation by the random Select your answer ✓than 0.5, so Observation C is classified as Donation by the random

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b.2 donations or no donations 

b.3 is, is not

 

A university is applying classification methods in order to identify alumni who may be interested in donating money. The university has a database of 58,205 alumni profiles containing
numerous variables. Of these 58,205 alumni, only 576 have donated in the past. The university has oversampled the data and trained a random forest of 100 classification trees. For a
cutoff value of 0.5, the following confusion matrix summarizes the performance of the random forest on a validation set:
Actual
Donation
Predicted
No Donation
20
No Donation
23,439
The following table lists some information on individual observations from the validation set:
Observation ID
A
B
с
Donation
268
5,375
Actual Class
Donation
No Donation
No Donation
Probability of
Donation
0.8
0.1
0.6
(a) Choose the correct explanation for how the probability of Donation was computed for the three observations.
(i) The probability of Donation for each observation is the proportion of the 100 individual classification trees that classified the observation as "Donation."
(ii) The probability of Donation for each observation is the proportion of the 100 individual classification trees that classified the observation as "No Donation."
(iii) The probability of Donation for each observation is the ratio of the individual classification trees that classified the observation as "Donation" and those that classified it as
"No Donation."
If required, round your answers to one decimal place.
The probability of Donation for Observation A is
forest.
Predicted
Class
(iv) The probability of Donation for each observation is the ratio of the individual classification trees that classified the observation as "No Donation" and those that classified it
as "Donation."
- Select your answer - ✓
Why were Observations A and C classified as Donation and Observation B was classified as No Donation?
The probability of Donation for Observation B is
forest.
Donation
No Donation
Donation
The probability of Donation for Observation C is
forest.
. It is - Select your answer - ✓than 0.5, so Observation A is classified as Donation by the random
. It is
. It is
-
Select your answer than 0.5, so Observation B is classified as No Donation by the random
Select your answer
✓than 0.5, so Observation C is classified as Donation by the random
Transcribed Image Text:A university is applying classification methods in order to identify alumni who may be interested in donating money. The university has a database of 58,205 alumni profiles containing numerous variables. Of these 58,205 alumni, only 576 have donated in the past. The university has oversampled the data and trained a random forest of 100 classification trees. For a cutoff value of 0.5, the following confusion matrix summarizes the performance of the random forest on a validation set: Actual Donation Predicted No Donation 20 No Donation 23,439 The following table lists some information on individual observations from the validation set: Observation ID A B с Donation 268 5,375 Actual Class Donation No Donation No Donation Probability of Donation 0.8 0.1 0.6 (a) Choose the correct explanation for how the probability of Donation was computed for the three observations. (i) The probability of Donation for each observation is the proportion of the 100 individual classification trees that classified the observation as "Donation." (ii) The probability of Donation for each observation is the proportion of the 100 individual classification trees that classified the observation as "No Donation." (iii) The probability of Donation for each observation is the ratio of the individual classification trees that classified the observation as "Donation" and those that classified it as "No Donation." If required, round your answers to one decimal place. The probability of Donation for Observation A is forest. Predicted Class (iv) The probability of Donation for each observation is the ratio of the individual classification trees that classified the observation as "No Donation" and those that classified it as "Donation." - Select your answer - ✓ Why were Observations A and C classified as Donation and Observation B was classified as No Donation? The probability of Donation for Observation B is forest. Donation No Donation Donation The probability of Donation for Observation C is forest. . It is - Select your answer - ✓than 0.5, so Observation A is classified as Donation by the random . It is . It is - Select your answer than 0.5, so Observation B is classified as No Donation by the random Select your answer ✓than 0.5, so Observation C is classified as Donation by the random
(b) Compute the values of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and precision. Explain why accuracy is a misleading measure to consider in this case. Evaluate the performance of the
random forest, particularly commenting on the precision measure.
If required, round your answer to three decimal places.
Accuracy =
If required, round your answers to the nearest whole percentage.
Accuracy is not the best measure to use for unbalanced data sets because less than
% of the alumni in the data have donated.
If required, round your answers for Sensitivity and Specificity to three decimal places and round your answer for Precision to four decimal places.
Sensitivity =
Specificity=
Precision =
The value of precision seems disturbingly - Select your answer - ✓ The precision measure represents the percentage of alumni classified by the random forest as
Select your answer - ✓ that are donors. Comparing the value of precision with the proportion of observations corresponding to donations, there
Select your answer -
a tremendous improvement in the ability to target alumni who may be more likely to donate.
Transcribed Image Text:(b) Compute the values of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and precision. Explain why accuracy is a misleading measure to consider in this case. Evaluate the performance of the random forest, particularly commenting on the precision measure. If required, round your answer to three decimal places. Accuracy = If required, round your answers to the nearest whole percentage. Accuracy is not the best measure to use for unbalanced data sets because less than % of the alumni in the data have donated. If required, round your answers for Sensitivity and Specificity to three decimal places and round your answer for Precision to four decimal places. Sensitivity = Specificity= Precision = The value of precision seems disturbingly - Select your answer - ✓ The precision measure represents the percentage of alumni classified by the random forest as Select your answer - ✓ that are donors. Comparing the value of precision with the proportion of observations corresponding to donations, there Select your answer - a tremendous improvement in the ability to target alumni who may be more likely to donate.
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