A typical box of 100 transistors contains 2 defective items. It is realized among the last 10 boxes, one box has 10 defective transistors. An inspector picks one of these 10 boxes at random and the first transistor is not defective. What’s the probability this box is the bad one?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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A typical box of 100 transistors contains 2 defective items. It is realized among the last 10 boxes, one box has 10 defective transistors. An inspector picks one of these 10 boxes at random and the first transistor is not defective. What’s the probability this box is the bad one?

Expert Solution
Step 1: Given

Number of transistors a box contains=100

out of which 2 are defective items.

Among the last 10 boxes, one box has 10 defective items.


P( 10 defective transitiors box) = 1/10 = 0.1
P( 1 defective transistor) = 9/10 = 0.9 

AND,

P( first tested is defective | 10 defective transitiors box) = 10/100 = 0.1
P( first tested is defective | 1 defective transitiors box) = 1/100 = 0.01

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