A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales during the last 15 days were: DAY 1 - 37 2 - 40 3 - 45 4 - 44 5 - 48 6 - 49 7 - 47 8 - 46 9 - 50 10 - 54 11 - 52 12 - 53 13 - 57 14 - 49 15 - 53 a. Assume the data refer to demand rather than sales. Using
A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales during the last 15 days were:
DAY
1 - 37
2 - 40
3 - 45
4 - 44
5 - 48
6 - 49
7 - 47
8 - 46
9 - 50
10 - 54
11 - 52
12 - 53
13 - 57
14 - 49
15 - 53
a. Assume the data refer to demand rather than sales. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with an initial forecast of 42 for Day 8, an initial trend estimate of 2, and α = β = .3, develop demand forecasts for Days 9 through 16. Then compute the resultant MSE using the error values from Days 8 through 15. (Round your intermediate period-by-period forecast and error values to 3 decimal places. Round your final MSE answer to 3 decimal places.)
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