A large research hospital has accumulated statistical data on its patients for an extended period. Researchers have determined that patients who are smokers have an 18% chance of contracting a serious illness such as heart disease, cancer, or emphysema, whereas there is only a .06 probability that a nonsmoker will contract a serious illness. From hospital records, the researchers know that 23% of all hospital patients are smokers, while 77% are nonsmokers. For planning purposes, the hospital physician staff would like to know the probability that a given patient is a smoker if the patient has a serious illness.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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A large research hospital has accumulated statistical data on its patients for an extended period.
Researchers have determined that patients who are smokers have an 18% chance of contracting
a serious illness such as heart disease, cancer, or emphysema, whereas there is only a .06 probability
that a nonsmoker will contract a serious illness. From hospital records, the researchers
know that 23% of all hospital patients are smokers, while 77% are nonsmokers. For planning
purposes, the hospital physician staff would like to know the probability that a given patient is a
smoker if the patient has a serious illness.

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