a) Given at period 0 the state is NORMAL, estimate expected beneft obtain two periods when the sequence of decisions is do nothing, do nothing b) Given at period 0 the state is NORMAL, estimate expected benefit obtain two periods when the sequence of decisions is make promotion, make promotion

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A market demand has 3 possible states namely GOOD, NORMAL and BAD for each period.
At each period there are 2 possible decisions for the manager as do nothing/ make promotion. The
transition matrix of states regarding for possible decisions are given as below
Pof do nothing
GOOD
NORMAL
BAD
GOOD
0.4
0.2
04
0.3
0.2
0.5
NORMAL
0.5
BAD
0.1
0.4
Pof make promotion
GOOD
NORMAL
BAD
0.4
0.4
0.5
GOOD
0.2
NORMAL
04
0.1
BAD
0.3
0.4
0.3
It is known that the income for each period when the state in GOOD, NORMAL and BAD are 10000,
7000, 2000. Cost for do nothing is 0, and make promotion is 3000.
a) Given at period 0 the state is NORMAL, estimate expected beneft obtain two periods when the
sequence of decisions is do nothing, do nothing
b) Given at period 0 the state is NORMAL, estimate expected beneft obtain two periods when the
sequence of decisions is make promotion, make promotion
Transcribed Image Text:A market demand has 3 possible states namely GOOD, NORMAL and BAD for each period. At each period there are 2 possible decisions for the manager as do nothing/ make promotion. The transition matrix of states regarding for possible decisions are given as below Pof do nothing GOOD NORMAL BAD GOOD 0.4 0.2 04 0.3 0.2 0.5 NORMAL 0.5 BAD 0.1 0.4 Pof make promotion GOOD NORMAL BAD 0.4 0.4 0.5 GOOD 0.2 NORMAL 04 0.1 BAD 0.3 0.4 0.3 It is known that the income for each period when the state in GOOD, NORMAL and BAD are 10000, 7000, 2000. Cost for do nothing is 0, and make promotion is 3000. a) Given at period 0 the state is NORMAL, estimate expected beneft obtain two periods when the sequence of decisions is do nothing, do nothing b) Given at period 0 the state is NORMAL, estimate expected beneft obtain two periods when the sequence of decisions is make promotion, make promotion
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