a) Fill out the above table, calculating SES and AES as shown. Make sure to show your work forat least Quarters 3-5 for each forecast. b) Then calculate the Errors and Average Error for me. Which one of these three methods has the lea st average error? c) Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation for just Alpha = .5, Beta = .5 forme. Do the Errors mostly cancel each other out when we use Absolute Deviation on them?

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10:48 M
N l 75% i
You
Just now
---k. "The Whistle Stop Café in Weems,
Problem #3: l6
Georgia is well known for its popular homemade ice cream, made in a small plant in back of the café.
People drive all the way from Atlanta and Macon to buy the ice cream. The two women who own the café
want to developa forecasting model so they can plan their ice cream production and determine the
number of employees they need to sell ice cream in the café. They have accumulated the following sales
records for their ice cream for the past 12 quarters (3 years):
alpha =.3
Simple Exp.
Quarters Demand Smooth.
alpha =.5
Simple Exp.
Smooth
alpha = .5,
beta = .5
Adj. Exp.
Smooth
Error
Error
Error
1.
350
350
350
350 +0
2.
510
3
750
4.
420
370
480
7
860
8
500
9
450
10
550
11
820
12
570
a) Fill out the above table, calculating SES and AES as shown. Make sure to show your work forat
least Quarters 3-5 for each forecast.
b) Then calculate the Errors and Average Error for me. Which one of these three methods has the
least average error?
c) Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation for just Alpha = .5, Beta =.5 for me. Do the Errors mostly
cancel each other out when we use Absolute Deviation on them?
d) There is a specific reason why it's so difficult to properly forecast this data using Time Series
approach. Explain to me in 2-4 sentences what the problem is. Hint: considerwhat we are trying to
predict (gallons of ice cream sold).
II O
Transcribed Image Text:10:48 M N l 75% i You Just now ---k. "The Whistle Stop Café in Weems, Problem #3: l6 Georgia is well known for its popular homemade ice cream, made in a small plant in back of the café. People drive all the way from Atlanta and Macon to buy the ice cream. The two women who own the café want to developa forecasting model so they can plan their ice cream production and determine the number of employees they need to sell ice cream in the café. They have accumulated the following sales records for their ice cream for the past 12 quarters (3 years): alpha =.3 Simple Exp. Quarters Demand Smooth. alpha =.5 Simple Exp. Smooth alpha = .5, beta = .5 Adj. Exp. Smooth Error Error Error 1. 350 350 350 350 +0 2. 510 3 750 4. 420 370 480 7 860 8 500 9 450 10 550 11 820 12 570 a) Fill out the above table, calculating SES and AES as shown. Make sure to show your work forat least Quarters 3-5 for each forecast. b) Then calculate the Errors and Average Error for me. Which one of these three methods has the least average error? c) Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation for just Alpha = .5, Beta =.5 for me. Do the Errors mostly cancel each other out when we use Absolute Deviation on them? d) There is a specific reason why it's so difficult to properly forecast this data using Time Series approach. Explain to me in 2-4 sentences what the problem is. Hint: considerwhat we are trying to predict (gallons of ice cream sold). II O
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