A doctor is seeking an anti-depressant for a newly diagnosed patient. Suppose that, of the available anti-depressant drugs, the probability that any particular drug will be effective for a particular patient is p = 0.36. What is the probability that the patient will need to a. take 4 different drugs until the effective one is found.  b. take 5 different drugs until the effective one is found.  c. take 7 different drugs until the effective one is found.

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A doctor is seeking an anti-depressant for a newly diagnosed patient. Suppose that, of the available anti-depressant drugs, the probability that any particular drug will be effective for a particular patient is p = 0.36. What is the probability that the patient will need to

a. take 4 different drugs until the effective one is found. 
b. take 5 different drugs until the effective one is found. 
c. take 7 different drugs until the effective one is found. 

Expert Solution
Step 1

a. P[drug ineffective]= 1-P[drug effective]=1-0.36=0.64

Event that the patient will need to take 4 different drugs until the effective one is found is same as the

event that the patient will have initial three drugs ineffective but fourth drug should be a effective one, 

hence,

P[patient will need 4 different drugs until effective one is found]=

P[initially three drugs ineffective but fourth drug should be a effective one ]

= P[first drug ineffective]×P[second drug ineffective]×P[third drug ineffective]×P[ fourth drug effective]

= (0.64)3×0.36= 0.094

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