A doctor is called to see a sick child. The doctor has prior information that 90% of sick children in that neighborhood have the flu, while the other 10% are sick with measles. A well-known symptom of measles is a rash. Assume that the probability of having a rash if one has measles is 0.95. However, occasionally children with flu also develop rash, and the probability of having a rash if one has flu is 0.08. Upon examining the child the doctor doesn't find a rash, the probability that the child has measles is: None of these 0.43 0.006 0.57

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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A doctor is called to see a sick child. The doctor has prior information that 90% of sick
children in that neighborhood have the flu, while the other 10% are sick with measles. A
well-known symptom of measles is a rash. Assume that the probability of having a rash
if one has measles is 0.95, However, occasionally children with flu also develop rash, and
the probability of having a rash if one has flu is 0.08. Upon examining the child the
doctor doesn't find a rash, the probability that the child has measles is:
None of these
0.43
0.006
0.57
Transcribed Image Text:* Question A doctor is called to see a sick child. The doctor has prior information that 90% of sick children in that neighborhood have the flu, while the other 10% are sick with measles. A well-known symptom of measles is a rash. Assume that the probability of having a rash if one has measles is 0.95, However, occasionally children with flu also develop rash, and the probability of having a rash if one has flu is 0.08. Upon examining the child the doctor doesn't find a rash, the probability that the child has measles is: None of these 0.43 0.006 0.57
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