A chemical engineer is interested in determining whether a certain trace impurity is present in a product. An experiment has a probability of .80 of detecting the impurity if it is present. The probability of not detecting the impurity if it is absent is .90. The prior probabilities of the impurity being present and being absent are .40 and .60, respectively. Three separate experiments result in only two detections. What is the posterior probability that the impurity is present?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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A chemical engineer is interested in determining whether a
certain trace impurity is present in a product. An experiment
has a probability of .80 of detecting the impurity if it is
present. The probability of not detecting the impurity if it is
absent is .90. The prior probabilities of the impurity being
present and being absent are .40 and .60, respectively. Three
separate experiments result in only two detections. What is
the posterior probability that the impurity is present?

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