(a) An analyst argues that exchange rate movements depend on interest rate differentials (that is, the International Fisher effect), country-specific economic policy uncertainty measures and country-specific GDP growth rates. With this in mind, the analyst estimates the following model: Expected rate of appreciation of yen against the dollar(%)= =0.5[idollar(%) – iyen(%)]+0.5[idollar(%) – iyen(%)]2+0.2[σUS(%) – σJAP(%)]+ +0.2[σUS(%)
Expected rate of appreciation of yen against the dollar(%)=
=0.5[idollar(%) – iyen(%)]+0.5[idollar(%) – iyen(%)]2+0.2[σUS(%) – σJAP(%)]+
+0.2[σUS(%) – σJAP(%)]2+0.1[GDPJAP(%) – GDPUS(%)].
In this model, idollar(%) is the one-year interest rate in the US, iyen(%) is the one-year interest rate in Japan, σUS(%) refers to economic policy uncertainty in the US, σJAP(%) refers to economic policy uncertainty in Japan, GDPUS(%) refers to annual GDP growth in the US and GDPJAP(%) refers to annual GDP growth in Japan. Assume idollar=6%, iyen=4%, σUS=5%,σJAP=1%, GDPUS=2% and GDPJAP=1%. Calculate the expected rate of appreciation of the yen against the dollar. Explain your findings in no more than 200 words.
Expected rate of appreciation of yen against the dollart(%)=
=0.1[idollart-2(%) – iyent-2(%)]+0.5[idollart-1(%) – iyent-1(%)]+1.0[idollar(%)t – iyen(%)t]2+
+0.1[GDPJAPt(%) – GDPUSt(%)].
In this model, idollart(%) is the one-year interest rate in the US in period t, iyent(%) is the one-year interest rate in Japan in period t, idollart-1(%) is the one-year interest rate in the US in period t-1, iyent-1(%) is the one-year interest rate in Japan in period t-1, idollart-2(%) is the one-year interest rate in the US in period t-2, iyent-2(%) is the one-year interest rate in Japan in period t-2,GDPUSt(%) refers to annual GDP growth in the US in period t and GDPJAP(%) refers to annual GDP growth in Japan in period t. Assume idollart-2=4%, iyent-2=2%,idollart-1=5%, iyent-1=3%, GDPUSt=3% and GDPJAPt=1%. Calculate the one-year interest rate differential idollar(%)t – iyen(%)t that delivers an expected rate of appreciation of the yen against the dollar of 5.8% in period t. Briefly comment on your finding.
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