71. Your company has signed a contract with a goodcustomer to ship the customer an order no later than20 days from now. The contract indicates that thecustomer will accept the order even if it is late, butinstead of paying the full price of $10,000, it will beallowed to pay 10% less, $9000, due to lateness. Youestimate that it will take anywhere from 17 to 22 daysto ship the order, and each of these is equally likely.You believe you are in good shape, reasoning that theexpected days to ship is the average of 17 through 22,or 19.5 days. Because this is less than 20, you will getyour full $10,000. What is wrong with yourreasoning?

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
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71. Your company has signed a contract with a good
customer to ship the customer an order no later than
20 days from now. The contract indicates that the
customer will accept the order even if it is late, but
instead of paying the full price of $10,000, it will be
allowed to pay 10% less, $9000, due to lateness. You
estimate that it will take anywhere from 17 to 22 days
to ship the order, and each of these is equally likely.
You believe you are in good shape, reasoning that the
expected days to ship is the average of 17 through 22,
or 19.5 days. Because this is less than 20, you will get
your full $10,000. What is wrong with your
reasoning?

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